\u3000\u3000 Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) (603236)
Event: on the evening of January 27, Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual revenue in 2021 will be about 11 billion yuan, up from 6.11 billion yuan in 2020, up from + 80.2% year-on-year; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company reached 350 million yuan, an increase of 85.2% compared with 190 million yuan in 2020. The net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company is expected to be 328 million yuan, an increase of 92.9% compared with 170 million yuan in 2020.
Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent company basically met expectations. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 2021q4 will be about 3.52 billion yuan, about + 85.7% year-on-year in 2020q4 and + 11.5% month on month in 2021q3; The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was about 113 million yuan, about + 76.7% compared with 64 million yuan in 2020 and + 9.3% compared with 103 million yuan in 2021q3.
The boom of the cellular Internet of things module industry is rising. As a global leader, the company fully enjoys the dividend of the rapid development of the track. According to the data of counterpoint, the shipments of global cellular Internet of things modules in 2021q3 were + 70% year-on-year, and the overall revenue exceeded US $1.5 billion. Due to the low base, 5g products increased by 700% year-on-year. In 2020, the global share of the company’s shipments accounted for about 32%, ranking first in the industry, with a total number of customers of more than 8500. The company continues to enrich its product categories and downstream application fields, and its sales revenue in vehicle, intelligent security, gateway, wireless payment, laptop and other fields has increased significantly. We believe that with the continuous enrichment of downstream applications of the Internet of things, the comprehensive income brought by the company’s scale effect plus cost advantage will gradually appear, and the company’s market share is expected to be further improved.
Accelerate the layout of vehicle modules and make breakthroughs in product solutions. In recent years, the company has continuously increased the layout of the vehicle field, and made breakthroughs in product certification and new product release: the new vehicle Android intelligent modules ag800d and ag600k were released on January 4, 2022; At the same time, the vehicle specification module ag521r-eu has passed the EU authoritative certification, which can provide module end-to-end solutions for LTE-A high-speed 4G vehicle networking communication and dual band GNSS positioning requirements at home and abroad, and support the first landing of 5g + c-v2x models; At present, the company has cooperated with more than ten main engine manufacturers based on ag55xq series vehicle compliance module, and some models, such as Gaohe hiphix under Chinese express, have been put into commercial use. We believe that due to the high technical and certification barriers of vehicle specification products, the company has obvious first mover advantages, and the value of such modules is high. Under the wave of automobile intelligence and networking, it is expected to open space for the company’s long-term performance growth.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 355 / 549 / 974 million respectively, corresponding to the PE multiple of 77X / 50x / 28x, and the PE valuation Center since listing is 108x. We believe that the company’s annual performance has increased significantly, and is about to usher in a double inflection point of gross profit margin and net profit margin. At the same time, the vehicle is progressing smoothly and is expected to be large-scale, and the release of future profits is uncertain. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the competition in the Internet of things industry is intensifying; The development of the Internet of vehicles industry is less than expected; PC expansion is less than expected
