\u3000\u3000 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) (300558)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 2.20-2.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6% - 23.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 380-430 million, a year-on-year decrease of 37.3% - 29.1%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 350-400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% - 20.0%.
Comments:
The annual performance increased steadily, and the volume of ensatinib was large. The core product ektinib achieved a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and is expected to achieve a revenue of more than 2 billion yuan in the whole year, continuing to maintain a double-digit growth; Ensatinib achieved revenue of 120 million yuan in the first three quarters and 65 million yuan in Q3. We expect to achieve revenue of 180 million yuan in the whole year. The rapid volume of the whole year has become a new growth point of the company's performance. The year-on-year decline in net profit is mainly due to the investment income generated by the company's sale of the equity of Zhejiang Beida Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. in 2020, resulting in a large base in 2020. Excluding this influencing factor, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase year-on-year in 2021.
Health care negotiations are progressing smoothly, and the approval of new products opens up room for growth. At the end of 2021, the indications of postoperative adjuvant therapy of ecktinib and ensatinib entered the medical insurance catalogue. Ecktinib filled the gap of oral targeted drugs for postoperative treatment of non-small cell lung cancer in the medical insurance catalogue. Ensatinib has also become the first national innovative new drug included in the national medical insurance in the ALK field, which is expected to continue to bring stable sales growth to the company. From November to December, bevacizumab mil60 was successfully listed and approved with a number of indications. The first batch of prescriptions were issued in January 2022, and the new cycle is expected to contribute more performance.
R & D investment continues to increase, and the pipeline under research is arranged in many aspects around the tumor field. The company's R & D investment increased compared with the same period of last year and is expected to account for about 37.00% - 42.00% of the operating revenue. Voronib (CM082) and bevotinib submitted drug registration application, bpi-23314 (BET protein family small molecule inhibitor), bpi-361175 (EGFR small molecule inhibitor), bpi-21668 (PIK3CA gene mutation), mcla-129 (EGFR / c-Met bispecific antibody), bpi-421286 (krasg12c small molecule inhibitor), batilimumab (PD-1 antibody) Several projects, such as zelavizumab (CTLA-4 antibody) and bpi-16350, have been approved for clinical trials. At present, the company has more than 40 ongoing research projects, and it is expected that new drugs will continue to be listed in the future.
Profit forecast: we expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be RMB 2.271/33.11/4.222 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.4% / 45.8% / 27.5% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 393 / 551 / 677 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 35.3% / + 40.4% / + 22.9% respectively. The current closing price corresponding to PE is 67 / 48 / 39 times respectively. The expansion of new indications of the company's core product ektinib has achieved stable growth. Ensatinib has begun to increase in large quantities and is expected to further open up the growth space after entering medical insurance. Bevacizumab, voronib and bevotinib are expected to contribute to the increment this year. At the same time, the company's pipeline under research focuses on various aspects of the tumor field and covers it for the first time, Give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: risk of R & D failure, product sales falling short of expectations, centralized purchase or medical insurance negotiation price reduction exceeding expectations.
