\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (300568)
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 68-78 million yuan, down 33% - 23% month on month, and the accrued bonus and impairment will affect the profit. The company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 280-290 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 131.10% - 139.35%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 68-78 million, with a year-on-year increase of 264% - 318% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% - 23%, which is basically in line with the market expectation. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted by 290-300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 227.77% - 239.07%, of which 92-102 million yuan will be deducted from the net profit not attributable to the parent company in 2021q4, with a month-on-month increase of 2% - 13%, of which the company bonus of 110-20 million yuan + impairment loss of melt blown cloth equipment of 110-20 million yuan will be accrued in Q4. If added back, the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted by about 120 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of about 20%, which is in line with market expectations.
In the fourth quarter, the diaphragm volume increased, and the product structure was further optimized. We expect that the shipment of diaphragm in 2021q4 will be about 320 million square meters, an increase of about 10% month on month, with full production and full sales. In 2021, we expect the annual sales volume to reach 1.12-1.14 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 60%. In terms of profitability, the company deducted 97 million yuan of non net profit in a single quarter in 2021q4. We expect the single average profit to be 0.3 yuan / average +, which is flat or slightly increased month on month. If the accrued bonus and impairment impact are added back, we expect to deduct about 120 million yuan of non net profit in 2021q4, which corresponds to about 0.37 yuan / average, which is + 25% month on month, The substantial increase in profitability is mainly due to the improvement of the company's customer structure. In 2021, we expect to deduct non single average net profit of 0.26 yuan / square, more than doubling year-on-year. Throughout the year, we expect the company's diaphragm shipments to reach 1.12-1.14 billion Ping in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 60%. Wet diaphragm benefited from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) large-scale procurement. From 2021q3, LG, overseas Samsung, Murata, saft and other overseas customers began to contribute new increment, of which LG is expected to contribute about 100 million Ping. We expect wet diaphragm to account for more than 60% and dry method shipment to account for nearly 40%; We expect diaphragm shipments to be more than 1.7 billion square meters in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 50%, of which the proportion of overseas wet methods will be further increased. LG is expected to double the growth, and the coating proportion will be further increased when it enters the supply chain of northvol, SK and other customers. We expect the average net profit of the company to be further improved.
Increase production expansion to support long-term high growth. By the end of 2021, the company's production capacity was 1.5 billion square meters, with a total capacity of about 900 million square meters for wet base film, nearly 200 million square meters for dry process Shenzhen base, and 400 million square meters for Jiangsu base. In terms of coating, the company's Jiangsu base was constructed in two phases, with 30 lines in phase I, corresponding to 600 million square meters, 20 lines in phase II, corresponding to 400 million square meters, and has been fully put into operation. In the follow-up, the production capacity of dry process and wet process will be further expanded in Changzhou and Sweden. The Swedish base is planned to be 700 million square meters, the construction of phase I coating capacity of 90 million square meters will be started, and it will be gradually put into operation in 2023. China will plan to have a capacity of 800 million square meters, which will be put into operation in 2022. We expect that the company's shipment volume in 2021 is expected to exceed 1.1 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%; In the second half of 2022, the company will increase the capacity of dry process and wet process, and we expect the shipment of diaphragm to be more than 1.7 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 50%; In 2023, the production capacity will be released and the growth will be accelerated. We expect to ship more than 2.5 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of more than + 47%. In order to meet the needs of downstream customers, the company plans to raise no more than 6 billion yuan through fixed increase, increase production capacity and expand production, and the subsequent share is expected to be further increased.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the one-time expense provision of the company, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 285 / 701 / 1124 million yuan (originally expected to be 321 / 7 / 1124 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 135% / 146% / 60%; Corresponding to 93 / 38 / 24 times of the current price of PE, 50xpe will be given in 2022, corresponding to the target of 45.5 yuan, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the policy and sales volume are lower than expected, and the competition intensifies
