Events
On January 25, Hunan Medical Insurance Bureau issued the notice on submitting the procurement data related to the scope of the seventh batch of centralized drug procurement organized by the state. Previously, relevant documents had been circulated on the Internet. According to the seventh batch of drug centralized purchase catalogue published by Hunan Province, a total of 60 varieties and 208 product specifications are involved.
Key investment points
From the perspective of varieties included in the catalogue, the proportion of injections is high, and the overall competition pattern is more sufficient. The centralized purchase catalogue involves 28 kinds of injections, accounting for a relatively high proportion. There are some large single products, such as edaravone, oseltamivir, etc. The national sales of edaravone in 2019 is expected to be about 3 billion yuan, and the sales of oseltamivir in 2019 will reach 6 billion yuan. At present, it is the best-selling anti influenza drug in China. The competition pattern of oseltamivir has changed greatly. Previously, oseltamivir was mainly sold by Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) , accounting for nearly 90% of the market share in China, and Roche accounted for about 10%. In recent years, there are many enterprises that have passed the consistency evaluation of oseltamivir, such as Kelun, Shiyao Ouyi, Chengdu Beite, etc., which may bring large increment to the new winners. In addition, zoledronic acid and Cefmetazole are also large single products with more than one billion. From the perspective of variety orientation of centralized purchase in recent times, the proportion of injections is increasing. Injections are the dosage form with the largest drug sales in Chinese hospitals, with a market capacity of more than 500 billion yuan. For pharmaceutical enterprises, the competition pattern remains to be stabilized.
In 2022, centralized mining will "speed up and expand", and the competition pattern remains to be stabilized. On the 10th, when presiding over the executive meeting of the State Council, the premier pointed out that in recent years, the reform of centralized procurement of drugs and high-value medical consumables has been continuously promoted, which has promoted the R & D and quality improvement of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) products. The next step is to promote the normalization and institutionalization of centralized volume procurement and speed up the expansion to benefit patients.
The centralized purchase policy is promoted at the national and local levels. There is great pressure on the payment varieties in medical insurance, and some consumables outside medical insurance need to pay more attention to the landing policy. According to the press release of the national standing committee, the centralized mining work will be upgraded again in 2022, and the number of varieties involved will be expanded again, focusing on the drugs and consumables for chronic diseases and common diseases. In addition, we should also pay attention to the consumables such as orthopedics, balloons and dental implants with high public attention. At present, the centralized purchase policy is mainly promoted at the national and local levels. The national level mainly focuses on the varieties with large consumption and high purchase amount in the medical insurance catalogue, and the provincial level mainly focuses on some varieties with immature purchase rules, so as to achieve the long-term goal of full collection. However, since some consumables are not paid with funds in the medical insurance, we think it is necessary to observe the landing policy.
Investment suggestion: the internal control fee of medical insurance is a long-term trend, but at present, the overall mood of the industry is relatively pessimistic. We believe that in the subdivided industries such as vaccines, pharmacies and traditional Chinese medicine, the policy has a protective or neutral attitude, and on the whole, the opportunities still outweigh the risks.
Risk factors: product sales are less than expected; Policy changes; Business risk
