In 2021q4, nonferrous metals stocks continued to rise as a whole. SW nonferrous metals rose by 7.12% in the quarter, led by the magnetic material industry. The quarterly average price of metals in 2021q4 remained high as a whole. The average prices of q4shef copper and aluminum were 70500 yuan / ton and 20200 yuan / ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 1.5% and – 2.0% respectively. In copper, taper fell to the ground, stocks were low, and copper prices remained high; In terms of aluminum, the cost side changed, and the Q4 price rose sharply and rebounded after falling; Rare earth magnetic materials led the sector by policy stimulus; New energy and other industrial chain related metal sectors strengthened. In 2021q4, SW nonferrous metals ranked 17th in Shenwan industry.
In 2021q4, the proportion of non-ferrous industry fund positions decreased by 0.48pct to 3.65% month on month. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the rise of energy prices pushed the metal cost end upward. Then, the state intervened in regulation and control, the cost end plummeted and the support was no longer available, which led to the rise and fall of industrial metal prices. The decline of relevant targets was large, and the position of public funds fell accordingly. In terms of energy metals, lithium carbonate and rare earth prices continued to rise, but the stock increase was not large, mainly due to differences in market views, weaker consensus expectations and more position reduction. Fund position Q4 fell slightly.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about copper aluminum, cobalt lithium opportunities.
1) industrial metals: steady growth boosts traditional demand, and double carbon changes the supply curve. Supply side: under the background of carbon neutralization and carbon peaking, policy restrictions and rising energy prices increase the production cost of energy consuming metals, forcing the industry to clear, and the supply side of some varieties is becoming steeper and steeper. Demand side: the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee determined that the main tone of economic work in 2022 was stable growth. Under the guidance of the policy, the previous pessimistic expectation of the decline of the traditional demand side will be reversed. On the premise of the stable growth of the demand in the traditional fields of industrial metals, the rapid development of the corresponding new energy industry superimposed with carbon and boosted the demand in the emerging fields of downstream industrial metals. The supply-demand curve will be different from the previous cycle, and commodity prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. It is suggested to focus on Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) .
2) new energy metals: the global electrification process is accelerated, the resource premium capacity is improved, and the supply and demand structure is tight for a long time. Lithium: the profits of the industrial chain are rapidly transferred to the upstream, and the price is expected to remain high. From the ore end, the ore and Salt Lake capacity concentration is high, and the spot supply to the market is limited, and the supply of lithium concentrate is tight. The auction price of lithium concentrate has reached a record high, and the profits of the industrial chain have been quickly transferred to the upstream. Cobalt: facing the pressure of increasing supply in the short term, the price may fluctuate in a steady state in the long term. In the future, with the expansion of the power demand base in the supply and demand structure of cobalt products, the demand for new energy of consumer electronics will improve for a long time, which will have a certain support for the price of cobalt products. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Risk tip: metal prices have fallen sharply, terminal demand is lower than expected, and global deflation is expected to intensify.
