Basic conclusion
Market traffic: from the stage of increasing the number of users to the stage of improving the quality of users. According to the national gold index, the growth of the total number of users slowed down, but the user stickiness increased: 1) in December, the total amount of Mau increased by 8% year-on-year, and the total amount of dau increased by 9.5% year-on-year. The “double 11 promotion” ended, the e-commerce rose and fell, and the shallow users in the life service sector lost; 2) Active users: the total usage time in December increased by 13% year-on-year, and the total usage frequency increased by 3.1% year-on-year.
Level 1 track: the overall level has decreased, and the takeout and social information terminals show a good trend. According to the national gold index: 1) the pattern is relatively stable, wechat and QQ in comprehensive platforms have decreased slightly, and vertical platforms are changing from a growth period to a stable period; 2) Users in the game sector precipitated, the viscosity increased, and the music audio increased rapidly; 3) Affected by the end of “double 11”, it shows a downward trend as a whole; 4) Living Services: affected by the epidemic, the “isolated economy” represented by food takeout has accelerated development, and “going home for the new year” has promoted the active growth of tourism users; 5) Traffic distribution: as a high-frequency demand, it shows a steady growth trend, and download distribution continues to rise; 6) Tools: the number of users of practical tools is large and still growing steadily. The use time and frequency of intelligent wearers have increased significantly, which also reflects the trend of intelligent Internet.
Internet company traffic: the pattern is relatively stable. Internet companies are in the stage of seizing users for a long time, and their head is still strong, but emerging giants are also rising. Changes in the user base of each company in December: Tencent social base: wechat Mau index increased by 1.7% year-on-year and decreased by 0.47% month on month; Alibaba e-commerce basic disk: Taobao Mau index increased by 10% year-on-year and decreased by 3.8% month on month; Baidu search basic disk: Baidu Mau index increased by 5.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.82% month on month; Meituan’s local life basic index: meituan Mau index increased by 8.6% year-on-year and decreased by 1.5% month on month; The basic tiktok of short video is 24% of the MAU, 1.7% less than the ring.
Basic logic: starting from the needs met by the mobile Internet, look at the traffic entrance and cash realization means of Internet companies. We believe that for Internet companies, the basic and high-frequency demand is generally the traffic entrance, and the advanced demand is the means of realization. We believe that the main directions in the future are: 1) basic demand – penetration or integration: the penetration rate of industries with high professionalism, such as internet medical, Internet Finance and other vertical fields, is still increasing, and industries with low professionalism but related to the rigid needs of daily life will be further integrated; 2) High level demand – high quality, compliance and diversification are the content and development direction: higher level demand is more likely to be born in Pan entertainment, games and other ecosystems.
Risk tips
Industry policy uncertainty risk; Risk of deviation between statistical results and actual situation; Industry competition intensifies risks
