We selected 178 A shares in the residential industry chain (including 53 in the real estate industry, 59 in the construction industry and 64 in the building materials industry) as the sample subject, It is further subdivided into three categories and 10 secondary industries (pre infrastructure real estate cycle: real estate development, design consulting, infrastructure real estate construction and cement; post infrastructure real estate cycle: glass fiber, decoration, decoration building materials and real estate services; other: other materials and professional projects), and the market review of the industrial chain in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the analysis of the heavy positions of public funds are carried out.
Industry chain Market Review: 2021q4 yield is in line with the market. In this quarter (2021q4, the same below), the yield of the housing industry chain was basically in line with the market, among which the building materials sector performed the strongest, slightly outperforming the market, while construction and real estate lost slightly. The average rise and fall of the residential industry chain in this quarter was 5.87%, and the excess return relative to all A-Shares was 0.91%. Among them, the average rise and fall of real estate, construction and building materials were 2.38%, 4.68% and 10.85% respectively, and the excess returns were – 4.40%, – 2.10% and 4.07% respectively. From January 1 to 25, 2022, the housing industry chain significantly outperformed the market, including the real estate and construction industries, while the building materials industry slightly outperformed the market.
Industry position: We selected the common stock funds (excluding passive index funds and index enhancement funds) in the stock funds, the partial stock hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds in the hybrid funds as the sample funds. (1) The overall position of the residential industry chain was significantly increased, and the over allocation example was slightly higher than that of the historical center: in this quarter, the stock market value of the residential industry chain (real estate, construction and building materials industries under shenwanxin classification) accounted for 3.58% (8% in recent 10 years), an increase of 0.70pct over the previous quarter, an over allocation proportion of – 2.00% (62% in recent 10 years), and + 0.73pct over the previous quarter. (2) Among the primary industries, the real estate industry has the largest increase in positions, and the over allocation ratios of the three industries are near the historical center: the market value of fund heavy positions in the real estate, construction and building materials industries accounted for 1.85%, 0.55% and 1.18% of A-Shares respectively in this quarter (the percentages in recent 10 years were 8%, 28% and 46% respectively), with a month on month ratio of + 0.33pct, + 0.14pct and + 0.23pct respectively in the previous quarter; The over allocation ratio of real estate, construction and building materials industries was – 0.41%, – 1.39%, – 0.19% (the percentage ranking in recent 10 years was 56%, 56% and 51% respectively), with a month on month ratio of + 0.39pct, + 0.15pct and + 0.19pct respectively in the previous quarter. (3) In the secondary industry, other materials, professional engineering and real estate development have increased their positions the most, and the positions of real estate services have been reduced more. The market value of heavy positions of other building materials, glass fiber and professional engineering accounts for a historically high proportion of the circulation market. Design consulting, cement Decoration is at a historically low level: the three sub sectors with the largest increase in the market value of the fund’s heavy holdings compared with the previous quarter are other materials (+ 2.12pct), professional engineering (+ 1.45pct) and real estate development (+ 1.23pct), and the three sub sectors with the largest decrease are real estate services (- 6.29pct), decoration (- 3.59pct) and design consulting (- 0.33pct). The three sub sectors with the highest percentage of the market value of the fund’s heavy holdings in the circulation market in recent 10 years are other materials (100%), glass fiber (85%) and professional engineering (85%), and the three sub sectors with the lowest percentage in recent 10 years are design consulting (6%), cement (10%) and decoration (26%).
Individual stock positions: (1) market value of individual stock positions: the top five market values of heavy positions held by public funds in the residential industry chain in this quarter are Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (RMB 17.859 billion), China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (RMB 14.006 billion), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (RMB 12.862 billion), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (RMB 5.783 billion) and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (RMB 4.015 billion). (2) Changes in individual stock positions: calculated by the proportion of heavy positions in tradable shares, the top five positions in the previous quarter were Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) (+ 21.60pct), Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) (+ 10.40pct), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (+ 5.49pct), Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) (+ 5.40pct) and Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) (+ 4.27pct); The top five positions were New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (- 13.95pct), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (- 12.39pct), Xiamen Solex High-Tech Industries Co.Ltd(603992) (- 10.76pct), Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) (- 3.49pct) and Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (- 2.12pct).
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeds expectations, the real estate credit risk is out of control, the policy concentration exceeds expectations, and the data statistics may deviate within the allowable range.
