Event:
Near the Spring Festival, the season of liquor making is gradually approaching the end of the season. Terminal consumption is in progress. We have recently tracked the Baijiu Baijiu core market in Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanxi and Sichuan.
The Spring Festival moves rapidly in the busy season, and the overall performance is stable: with the logistics and shipping more convenient, the 22 year Spring Festival Baijiu moves the rhythm of the move back, the actual shipment is mainly concentrated in the 10-15 days before the holiday, compared with the previous year, about a month or so, the Baijiu purchase and consumption point obviously depends on the time, and the Spring Festival’s dynamic sales period is expected to extend. From the current feedback, the channel payment collection is carried out in an orderly manner. The payment collection progress of the main liquor enterprises is about 30%, and the delivery progress is 20-25% (accounting for the proportion of the tasks in the whole year of 22 years, the same below). The inventory at the dealer level remains at a reasonable level. Some major merchants feedback that most products have been shipped to the terminal, and the overall performance of dynamic sales is relatively stable.
Henan epidemic situation is limited, and Jiangsu and Anhui have a more prominent market performance. From the feedback of main areas, Henan was hit by certain epidemic in the first half of January. Since January of last year, the situation of epidemic prevention and control has improved, and the sales of Spring Festival has been gradually restored. The demand for high-end Baijiu such as gifts has little influence, and the drinking and eating are affected more. Overall, it is expected that the impact of the epidemic on the movable sales in the whole year of 22 years will be about 10-15%. Jiangsu has not been affected by the epidemic recently. The high-end Baijiu, represented by Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , has a bright performance. The real estate brands are four yuan, and dream 6+ is also good. Due to the repeated epidemic in December, the banquet scene in Zhejiang has been impacted to some extent, resulting in the weakening of dynamic sales compared with the Spring Festival in 21 years. However, it has gradually improved since late January, and the follow-up dynamic sales at the consumer level are expected to continue to make up. Anhui’s performance is relatively outstanding. According to the channel feedback, the time of entering the peak season is earlier than that in 21 years, and the goods are more sufficient. The epidemic control has little impact on the wine consumption. The dealers and terminal outlets have sufficient confidence, and the sales volume has increased compared with the same period in 21 years. Shanxi has good feedback from market channels and terminals, strong demand for wine such as dinner and group purchase, and the consumption capacity of enterprise customers has also been improved. Sichuan market feedback Spring Festival excellent Baijiu good sales, good performance of thousand yuan price belt, shipments increased over the same period in 21 years, and the sauce wine fever has cooled, the old Sichuan liquor enterprise status is more stable.
High end smooth, quality priority: from the feedback of specific wine enterprises, high-end liquor performance is stable, Baijiu factory attaches more importance to growth quality and inventory management, has planned regulation of money back and delivery rhythm, superimposed high-end demand is more rigid, gift, business banquet and other consumer scenarios under the impact of the epidemic is relatively resilience, expect high-end prices to drive sales steady rise.
1) Maotai: the demand is still strong. Henan, Jiangsu and other channels feed back that the inventory is close to zero. At present, the progress of payment collection is 25-30%, and the delivery rhythm is basically the same. Since the unpacking policy was cancelled, the wholesale price of whole container / bulk bottle has stabilized, about 3200 / 2800 yuan respectively. At present, the new Maotai 1935 has less supply to dealers, and the current actual transaction price is about 1600 yuan / bottle (the price is 1188 yuan / bottle). Mainly due to the short listing time and less delivery, the launch of high-quality Maotai, vintage Maotai and other non-standard products has increased, the series liquor channels are profitable, and the actual sales are relatively smooth, but it is estimated that the pace of launch has slowed down.
2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : supported by strong brand strength, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has a solid position in the price band of 1000 yuan, and the actual dynamic sales performance is good. At present, some major dealers have completed the annual payment collection in advance. The payment collection progress of other dealers is 30-40% and the delivery progress is 20-30%. It is estimated that the delivery volume before the festival can be completed by 30% +, and the inventory at the dealer level is low. Recently, due to the increase of delivery near the peak season, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating price of the eighth generation fell back to about 970 yuan. The classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating is about 1800 yuan. According to the feedback from East China and other channels, the signing pace has slowed down in 22 years. At present, it is mainly the dynamic sales of the original inventory.
3) old cellar: the payment received by Guojiao is about 30%, and the delivery progress is estimated to be 20%. According to the channel feedback, the old cellar distributes goods according to the actual sales, and the control of price and inventory is further strengthened. The volume of low-grade national cellars is more obvious, accounting for a relatively high proportion in the North China market, which is the mainstream product of the price band of 600-700 yuan. The high-grade national cellars are mainly priced at a high price, and the current wholesale price is 920 yuan, which is relatively stable.
It is estimated that the dynamic sales of national sub high-end liquor enterprises have increased year-on-year:
1) Fenjiu: since the beginning of the year, the quota system has been implemented throughout the country, and the payment collection requirement in the first quarter is about 40%. From January, the payment collection progress is 20-30%. The manufacturer delivers goods in batches in combination with the dealer’s inventory and actual demand, and Henan feeds back about 20% of the delivery progress. The overall inventory remained low, and the inventory before the holiday was about half a month. The market in the province performed well from channel to terminal. The market in Henan province outside the province was impacted by the epidemic in the early stage, but it has gradually recovered and the estimated impact is limited. The overall expectation is a good start and the certainty is high. Throughout the year, the main line is still structural upgrading. The wholesale price of qing20 rises to 370-380 yuan / bottle. In 22 years, it is expected to continue to increase the volume through channel sinking and emerging markets. The revival version is the high-end focus, and Bofen continues to be guided by volume control.
2) willing: the progress of payment collection is estimated to be 20-25%. According to the feedback from Sichuan channel, the inventory of dealers is about 40 days, and the inventory of terminal outlets is relatively high, which is mainly due to the preparation of goods during the Spring Festival. The rated prices of taste willing and wisdom willing are about 350 / 450 yuan respectively. The company has achieved good results in channel management and control, improved the level of marketing refinement, and the proportion of payment collection in Sichuan and other mature markets in the first quarter is expected to reach 40%. Throughout the year, the product system is expected to be further focused, the market development strategy is more clear, the mature market continues to strengthen the cultivation of consumers, enhance the density of terminal coverage, the emerging market is stable and expand channels, and the old wine focuses on new group purchase dealers and circle marketing.
3) Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : the Spring Festival payment collection and goods preparation are carried out in an orderly manner. The payment collection progress in the main markets is 25-30%. The delivery before the festival is basically completed, and the inventory level is relatively benign. The Sichuan market feedback that the inventory of terminal stores is about 40 days. In the whole year, eight and well as main contributions to the revenue, it is expected to continue to enjoy the bonus of the high-end Baijiu city expansion. The collection is the focus of the 22 year development. The company’s high-end line is firm, and the high-end business department and sales company are set up to operate independently and operate with higher flexibility. Some cities such as East China have successfully invested in the business, and the proportion of collection in 2022 is expected to further improve.
Local wine leaders performed well:
1) Jiangsu wine: Jiangsu is less affected by the epidemic, and the real estate leader performs better. Yanghe has made a good start in the past 22 years, and the payment collection requirements have been completed by 50%. According to the channel feedback, the payment collection in Nanjing is 40% +, and the progress of other markets in the province has reached 50%. The inventory before the festival has increased compared with the same period of the previous year (mainly inventory digestion in the previous year), but it is at a reasonable level. According to the channel feedback in the province, the current inventory will be gradually digested during the Spring Festival, and the actual transaction price of dream 6 + and crystal dream is about 620 / 430 yuan. Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) in Nanjing and other markets, it has continued its advantages and basically completed the payment collection task of 50% of the whole year. The inventory is at a low level. The transaction price of core single products is 450-460 yuan. It has a high self ordering rate of consumers locally. The actual transaction price of V3 is about 650 yuan, which has a certain channel thrust. At present, it is relatively small in scale, in a period of gradual volume, and the market investment of V9 is high, As a high-end product, it is in the cultivation period.
2) Huijiu: according to the channel feedback, the overall dynamic sales performance of Huijiu in the past 22 years is outstanding, which is better than that in the same period in the past 21 years. The increase of small-scale party scenes has promoted the consumption of alcohol and product upgrading, and the advantages of local brands are still prominent.
Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) the order completion progress has reached 40% +, and is expected to reach 50% at the end of the Spring Festival. The delivery is basically in place, and the completion target in the first quarter is higher than that in the same period of previous years. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) channel distribution is better than that in the same period of last year, and group purchase channels are mainly developed for products above secondary high-end. The Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) channel has a high enthusiasm for goods preparation, and it is expected that there will be a significant increase in dynamic sales during the Spring Festival.
Investment advice: from the feedback before the festival, Baijiu has a strong influence on liquor enterprises in some areas. The demand for high-end Baijiu is still resilience. On the basis of ensuring the normal demand for stock, wine enterprises have enhanced the control of the stock rhythm. It is expected that the sales will continue to be stable in the past. The Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) will continue to be recommended. Moutai’s marketing reform, non-standard products and new products will increase the revenue growth. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 22 is expected to achieve the growth of 15%+’s revenue. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought by the progress of equity incentive. The current valuation has high cost performance, relatively strong growth of Laojiao and obvious profit elasticity. In the second high-end Baijiu liquor, the brand potential of Fen Liquor is strong. The high growth and elasticity of the liquor are expected to continue. From the perspective of growth, the valuation level still has room for improvement. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) are recommended. The regional leading spots are relatively prominent. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) is recommended. The trend of reform is better. The valuation has the margin of safety. In the 22 years, it is suggested that we should pay attention to the reform of marketing and the development of the province.
