This article reviews and forecasts the Spring Festival market of Baijiu in 2022 with the view of the fight and sale and sale before the Spring Festival.
Review of dealers & shareholders’ meeting: under the complex situation, 22 years of “stable” and “high-quality development” are still the main line of the development of liquor enterprises. 22 years is the year of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) “accelerating the realization of high-quality development”; It is the year of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) “making progress while maintaining stability”; It is the year of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) “challenges and opportunities coexist”; It is the year of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) “high quality development”; It is the year of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) “focusing on the new leap forward of high-quality cohesion”; It’s the year of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) “great opportunity” Under the high base of 21 years, although the growth rate of liquor enterprises will naturally slow down, it still takes the structural upgrading as the main line to realize the double rise of revenue and profit.
Focus 1: the rhythm of payment – “early, flat and stable”, and the performance of 22q1 is highly deterministic. This year’s channel payment shows three characteristics: early (the start date of payment is earlier than that in previous years, and the account is closed earlier), flat (the overall goal of payment tends to be flat, slightly higher than that in previous years, and the concept of good start is weakened), and stable (the completion degree of payment is stable), Considering that the wineries opened early in 22 years + some wine enterprises had a good start compared with previous years + the inventory of dealers was generally low + the approval price was stable and positive + the channel confidence still actively guaranteed the smooth payment. The performance of 22q1 increased with high certainty: 1) high end wine: generally maintained a steady development trend, in which Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) performance elasticity was the highest; 2) Secondary high-end liquor: it still maintains high performance flexibility under the background of controlling goods and raising prices at the end of the year, of which Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are expected to maintain 80% revenue and profit growth; 3) Regional wine: under the low base of 21q1, it is expected to maintain an overall growth rate of 30% + performance.
Focus 2: the rhythm of dynamic sales – steady and positive (there is no need to be pessimistic). The core observation point behind it is the inventory (replenishment) after the festival. We believe that the core point of observing dynamic sales is whether the channel has replenishment power: the market is generally worried that poor dynamic sales will lead to high channel inventory after the festival, and then affect the replenishment of 22q2. Therefore, under the background of high performance increase certainty of 22q1 liquor enterprises and stable and high wholesale prices of liquor enterprises, we should deposit from the channel library after the festival to analyze the current dynamic sales in the region, cross regional allocation capacity, replenishment demand, etc. We investigated dozens of dealers in various provinces, and analyzed: 1) epidemic distribution and time (a small impact, but spread to Baijiu province). 2) Spring transportation data (higher than the same period last year); 3) At the time point of dynamic sales (consumption activity increased 1-2 weeks before the festival), it is considered that: 1) the trend of strong differentiation between the two ends continues, and the national brand liquor enterprises rely on strong regional allocation to maintain smooth dynamic sales and healthy channels; 2) The local epidemic will affect the distribution of sales volume, and the regional liquor that is less affected by this round of epidemic has certain advantages; 3) After 22 years, the overall channel inventory is expected to be at a healthy level, and wine enterprises may usher in a replenishment tide. From the perspective of subregions – affected by the general environment (the degree of impact of the epidemic / the high and low base in the same period last year) and their own influence, the dynamic sales of liquor enterprises in various provinces are differentiated. East China is better than South China and North China, and the overall situation remains stable and good; In terms of brands – the high-end competition is relatively flat, the sub high-end cost investment increases, and the competition intensifies.
Focus 3: when / how to layout – two major expectation differences, bottom-up logic + catalyst logic stock selection. Expectation difference 1: the market generally believes that the epidemic situation may be large, and the movable sales in some regions will be significantly weakened, which will affect their 22q2 inventory replenishment; We believe that the overall impact of the epidemic on mobile sales may be lower than market expectations, and brand liquor enterprises will generally enter the second quarter with a low inventory attitude; Poor expectation 2: the market generally believes that the current focus should be on the Hui liquor sector that is not affected by the epidemic or the high-end liquor sector with strong gift attributes; We think that in the 22 year, we should regard a basket of basic Baijiu targets as an alternative stock pool in the logic of investment. In the structural rotation market, we should combine the valuation position and analyze the five cycle theory + supply and demand model dynamically to predict the next stage market style (or refer to the 21 wheel style), and then select the high profit elastic target. Instead of focusing only on regional wine / sub high-end wine (there will be differentiation inside).
[investment suggestion] recommended concerns: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (marketing reform + non-standard price increase of series liquor + new product launch = thickened performance + still expected price increase), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (management will gradually stabilize + marginal improvement logic), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (new management takes office + strong development potential energy continues), Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (the payment progress in January 22 has reached the level of the first quarter of the same period last year, and the performance of 22h1 has increased with high certainty) Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (low base of dynamic sales + continuous release of potential energy of Dongzang series + continuous channel reform), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (continuous internal reform + marginal improvement logic).
[risk tip] repeated outbreaks have resulted in lower consumption than expected; Food safety risks.
