Event overview:
On January 27, Beijing time, Tesla released its 2021q4 and 2021 annual results. Q4 achieved a total revenue of US $17.72 billion in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 64.9% and a month on month increase of + 28.8%. The gross profit margin of 2021q4gaap reached 27.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.1pct and a month on month increase of + 0.8pct. In terms of profit, the net profit of 2021q4gaap was USD 2.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 759.6% and a month on month increase of + 43.4%. In 2021, the total revenue of the whole year was USD 53.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 70.7%, the gross profit margin of GAAP reached 25.3%, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3pct, and the net profit of GAAP was USD 5.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 665.5%.
Analysis and judgment:
New high profit elasticity in production and marketing
Delivery volume: 308650 Tesla models were delivered in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of + 70.8% and a month on month increase of + 27.9%. 936222 vehicles were delivered in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of + 87.4%. The company’s capacity construction has accelerated. The Austin plant and the Berlin plant have entered the assembly test stage. There is a small amount of production in 2021q4. Among them, the Austin plant produces a model y equipped with 4680 batteries, which will be delivered in this quarter. At the same time, the existing capacity is further released. The company expects that the delivery volume will increase by more than 50% this year only based on the capacity of Fremont and Shanghai factories.
Revenue side: the total revenue of 2021q4 company was US $17.72 billion, of which the revenue of automobile business was US $15.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 71.4% and a month on month increase of + 32.4%. In 2021q4, due to the continuous sales of modified models / x, the company’s automobile ASP reached US $51000, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.8% and a month on month increase of + 3.9%. In 2021, the total revenue of automobile business was US $47.23 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 73.4%, and automobile ASP reached US $49000, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.8%, mainly due to the increase of the proportion of low-cost Model3 / Y in the whole year. In 2021q4 / 2021, the annual sales of carbon credits were US $314 million / 1.47 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 21.7% / – 7.3% respectively, which had little impact on the overall revenue.
Profit side: in 2021q4, GAAP achieved a net profit of US $2.32 billion, making profits for ten consecutive quarters and hitting a new high at the same time. We judged that the increase in scale led to the decrease of single vehicle cost and the enhancement of expense rate control. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 automobile business was 30.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.5pct and a month on month increase of + 0.1pct; After deducting the points, the gross profit margin of automobile was 29.2%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.5pct and a month on month increase of + 0.4pct; The net profit of single vehicle has reached US $7520, with a year-on-year increase of + 403.2% and a month on month increase of + 12.2%. In 2021, the annual GAAP net profit was US $5.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 665.5%. After deducting the points, the automobile gross profit margin was 27.0%, a year-on-year increase of + 6.0pct; The net profit of single vehicle reached US $5895, a year-on-year increase of + 308.5%. According to the company’s performance press conference, Tesla has achieved the highest profit margin among all car companies that have achieved mass production. Driven by product power, we believe that the profitability of electric vehicles is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. With the recovery of supply chain and further improvement of production capacity, the profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve.
er的产能建设也在规划中。此外，公司业绩发布会中表示预计今年或将有新工厂选址的信息。新产能建设及新车型投放将助力特斯拉产销量继续向上，预计未来几年的复合增速有望达50%，部分年份增速甚至更高。’, ‘dstCapacity side: the construction of new capacity was advanced in an orderly manner, with capital expenditure of US $1.81 billion in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of + 57.3% and a month on month decrease of – 0.5%. At present, the total production capacity exceeds 1.05 million, specifically: 1) Fremont plant has a production capacity of 100000 models / X and 500000 models 3 / Y; 2) The production capacity of model 3 / Y in Shanghai factory exceeds 450000. The capacity of existing Fremont and Shanghai factories is also expected to increase significantly this year. In terms of new plant construction, the Austin plant and the Berlin plant have entered the assembly test stage, with a small amount of production in 2021q4. Among them, the Austin plant produces a model y equipped with 4680 batteries, which will be delivered in this quarter. In addition, Texas is planning the cybertruck production line (the launch time is postponed to 2023), and the production capacity construction of teslasemi and the second generation roadster that have been unveiled before is also under planning. In addition, the company’s performance press conference said that it is expected that there will be information on the location of new factories this year. The construction of new production capacity and the launch of new models will help Tesla’s production and sales continue to rise. It is expected that the compound growth rate in the next few years is expected to reach 50%, and the growth rate in some years is even higher.
Automatic driving ushered in a breakthrough, and the revenue of software continued to increase
The company has exceeded 60000 self driving vehicles in the United States and is expected to realize self driving this year. The company released seven upgrades for FSD in 2021q4. At present, there are more than 60000 self driving vehicles in the United States. Model3 / y based on pure vision scheme has also obtained the highest safety level evaluated by IIHS. At the company’s performance conference, musk also said that with the significant improvement of data security level, full-automatic driving will be realized this year.
FSD drives the continuous improvement of software revenue. As of 2021q3 (Q4 has not been announced), the company’s deferred revenue generated by super charging station, network connection, FSD and OTA has accumulated to US $2.22 billion. The company expects to recognize us $1.39 billion revenue from 2021q3 to 2022q3, and FSD is expected to become the core profit increment.
Strong product power drives China’s high-quality industrial chain to benefit
Tesla technology drives the qualitative change of supply and creates a strong product force leading among generations, which is mainly reflected in: 1) full stack self-developed automatic driving; 2) Self made power battery (4680 battery has made a substantial breakthrough and will be delivered soon). Considering that the capacity of the new Model3 / y Shanghai plant has reached 450000 vehicles / year, the capacity will continue to expand rapidly this year, which is expected to fully stimulate the upstream supply chain and create historic opportunities for independent suppliers to become bigger and stronger. China’s relevant industrial chains are complete, suppliers respond quickly and have strong cost optimization ability, which well meets the development needs of Tesla’s rapid iteration of products and rapid ramp up of production capacity. Tesla’s supply chain has few levels and a high degree of flattening. Parts enterprises have more opportunities to realize assembly supporting, and the relevant targets are expected to continue to benefit.
Investment suggestions:
Tesla leads the product drive, and the qualitative change on the supply side of new forces and traditional auto enterprises continues to advance. In the first half, the trend of electrification has been determined, and in the second half, the intelligent competition has started. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit have accelerated together, and electric intelligence has reshaped the industrial order. Rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended to recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility, and the beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing the intelligent electric configuration, hoping to achieve the brand upward: preferred acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wire controlled chassis – [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting – [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seats – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior decoration – [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type -[ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ]. Under the dual carbon pressure, there is a wide space for vehicle lightweight. It is recommended to [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], and benefit from [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ]
Risk tips
The delivery volume failed to meet the expectation due to the delay of the launch progress of new models and the construction progress of production capacity; The sluggish automobile demand leads to the sales volume of new energy vehicles outside China not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
