\u3000\u30001. Why did automotive chips become a new driving force in the semiconductor industry?
Driven by intelligence, the automotive industry is expected to realize industrial transformation and upgrading, and accelerate into a new era of interconnection of all things + Intelligent alliance of all things. At present, consumer electronics has stepped into the intelligent era step by step, while the automotive industry is facing the upgrading of intelligent industry. The overall process can be compared from functional machine to intelligent machine. With the promotion of carbon neutralization at the policy end, there are many waves of electrification, which is optimistic about the acceleration of new energy vehicles driven by intelligence and electrification.
Automotive intelligence + electrification drives the upgrading of the composition of the overall industrial value chain, and the content + importance of automotive chips has doubled. It is expected that the proportion of automotive semiconductors in the total cost of automobiles will reach 50% in 2030, which will become a new profit growth point of automobiles.
We are optimistic about the trend of Intelligence & under the carbon neutral policy, the automotive industry will usher in a revaluation opportunity for value growth, and the automotive chip will be revalued under the power of intelligence + electrification, which is expected to become a new driving force for the semiconductor industry.
\u3000\u30002. What is the incremental space for the future value of automotive chips? How much incremental space is required for wafers? The global automotive electronics market in 2021 is about 270 billion US dollars, and it is expected to be 400 billion US dollars in 2027. The automotive semiconductor market is about US $50.5 billion and is expected to be close to US $100 billion in 2027. Compared with traditional vehicles, it is predicted that the number of chips of new energy vehicles will increase significantly. 1) Power management chip: + 20% demand 50 pcs / vehicle; 2) Gatedriver: 30 PCS / vehicle; 3) CIS, ISP: + 50% demand 20 pcs / vehicle; 4) Display: it is estimated that each new energy vehicle needs 8 pieces; 5) MCU: + 30% demand 35 PCS / vehicle; 6) SiC: new demand
Calculation of the demand increment of semiconductor chips due to the change of global automobile sales:
Assuming that traditional cars need 500-600 semiconductor chips / vehicle and new energy vehicles need 1000-2000 semiconductor chips / vehicle: Based on the sales volume of 72.76 million traditional cars and 3.24 million new energy vehicles in 2020, the demand for automobile chips is 43.9 billion per year. It is estimated that in 2026, the sales volume of traditional vehicles will be 67.8 million, that of new energy vehicles will be 44.2 million, and that the demand for automobile chips will be 90.3 billion per year.
Calculation of value increment of semiconductor chips due to changes in global automobile sales:
Assuming that the semiconductor chips required by traditional vehicles are $397-462 / vehicle and new energy vehicles are $786-859 / vehicle: the value of global automotive chips in 2020 is $33.9 billion. The estimated value in 2026 is $65.5 billion.
Forecast on the growth of semiconductor wafer demand due to the change of global automobile sales:
12 inch: 1.98 million in 2020 and 4.04 million in 2026; 8-inch: 11.21 million in 2020 and 20.88 million in 2026.
6-inch: 4.43 million in 2020 and 13.06 million in 2026. 4-inch: 2.52 million in 2020, and it is expected to increase to 8.45 million in 2026.
\u3000\u30003. How are car chips classified? What is the growth rate of the value of automotive chips in different categories?
Automotive chips can be divided into five categories from the application link: main control chip, storage chip, power chip, signal and interface chip, sensor chip, etc. In 2020, the proportion of main control chip is 23%, that of power semiconductor is 22%, that of sensor is 13%, that of memory chip is 9%, and that of others is 33%.
Optimistic about the continuous improvement of assisted driving + automatic driving + vehicle electrification, driving the volume and price of automotive semiconductors to rise simultaneously:
\u3000\u30001. Controller: 40-70 traditional automobile controllers and 400-700 chips. 45-80 new energy vehicles and 500-800 chips;
\u3000\u30002. Analog chip: the L2 level car is expected to carry 6 sensors, and the L5 level car will carry 32 sensors. The proportion of automotive semiconductors has increased significantly;
\u3000\u30003. Main control chip: with the improvement of intelligence, the computing power continues to increase, from L1 < 1tops to l51000 + tops, which promotes the rapid growth of main control chip;
\u3000\u30004. Power semiconductors: the value of power semiconductors for fuel vehicles reached US $87.6 and new energy vehicles US $458.7, more than quadrupling;
\u3000\u30005. Memory chip: with the improvement of intelligent level, the capacity and performance of automotive storage system grow rapidly, which has entered the core of the $100 billion market for memory.
\u3000\u30004. What car chips are currently lacking? Which manufacturers are most in need?
At present, the main types of lack of core include: main control chip MCU + power chip and drive chip, accounting for 74% of the lack of core, followed by communication chips such as signal chain can / Lin.
From the core chip brand distribution of automobile chips: mainly from NXP, TI, Infineon and STMicroelectronics, 75% of the risk is short of core, from the core distribution: 77% of the core is from Southeast Asia and the United States, and other China, Taiwan, Japan and Europe are all short of core. Future impact: 1) power semiconductors are expected to give priority to domestic substitution, and the market will gradually stabilize. 2) The shortage of MCU and 3) sensor chips will exist for a long time. 4) although SOC chips have no impact at present, there is a risk of shortage in the future due to the high concentration of high-performance products
\u3000\u30005. Distribution and product layout of major automobile chip manufacturers?
In 2020, the main manufacturers of automotive chips are distributed in three pillars: China, the United States, Japan and Europe. The top five manufacturers include Infineon, enzhi, Renesas, Texas Instruments and Italy France semiconductor. Among the top 25, Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) ranks 19th, and is the only company on the list in China. Among the five categories of automobile products, the top 25 companies have 12 main control chips, 13 signal and interface chips, 17 sensors, 3 storage chips and 20 power. Recently, new products of automatic driving, intelligent cockpit and lidar in ces2022 have been unveiled.
\u3000\u30006. How about the localization of automobile chips? What opportunities and challenges are Chinese companies facing?
At present, the localization rate of automotive electronics is less than 1%. The leading manufacturers have a monopoly pattern and have a strong relationship with Tier1. China’s opportunities are 1) reconstruction of industrial chain under the wave of automotive intelligence + electrification; 2) Most of the car gauge chips correspond to mature process products that do not rely on Moore’s law. At the same time, such chips are highly dependent on the downstream, and the products need to be jointly defined by the downstream. 3) the slowdown of Moore’s law and the rise of China’s new power cars give more opportunities for China’s industry to catch up; In recent years, the expansion of wafer manufacturing in China is mostly due to mature process links, superimposed with supporting design and sealing test. Therefore, it is judged that the global automotive semiconductor opportunity & production capacity has the opportunity to transfer to China from market scale, industrial chain reconstruction, mature process and other factors. Investment suggestion: IGBT & the third generation semiconductor: Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Dongwei semiconductor, etc; Lidar: Ju Guang technology, Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , Shun Yu optical technology, Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) ; Intelligent automobile: Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) ; Car server related: Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) ; Intelligent driving: Neusoft Corporation(600718) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) etc
Risk tip: the covid-19 epidemic has brought about a shortage of production capacity, a shortage of production capacity of global automotive chip suppliers, rising prices of chip suppliers, lower penetration of new energy vehicles than expected, and systemic risks
