The cost of single vehicle is declining, the scale effect drives the continuous improvement of profitability, and the free cash flow is sufficient. Tesla‘s annual revenue in 2021 was $53.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 71%; Among them, the revenue of automobile business was US $47.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 73%. In Q4 of 2021, Tesla‘s gross profit margin was 27.4%, of which the gross profit margin of automobile sales business was 30.6%. Tesla‘s gross profit margin continued to improve and took the lead in major OEMs. After deducting $6.5 billion of capital expenditure of new factories, Tesla created a GAAP net profit of $5.52 billion (year-on-year + 665%) in 2021, generated free cash flow of $5.02 billion, and its hematopoietic capacity continued to grow.
Gigafactory – Super factory creates Tesla manufacturing revolution. In 2021, Tesla delivered 936000 new energy vehicles worldwide, a year-on-year increase of + 87%. In 2021, the inventory turnover days of Q4 automobile are only 4 days. Tesla is carrying out production and manufacturing revolution through super factory and constantly creating delivery records. The Shanghai plant has become Tesla’s global delivery and export center. In 2021, domestic Tesla sold 473000 vehicles, of which 321000 were sold domestically and 152000 were exported. The sales of domestic modely exceeded that of Model3. In December, the sales volume of domestic Tesla exceeded 70000, a record high. We expect Tesla to have a global production capacity of 2.3/3.25 million vehicles and a sales volume of 1.7/2.6 million vehicles in 2022 / 2023. In 2022, Tesla China sold 800000 vehicles, including 60000 / 200000 domestic / export vehicles, 200000 / 400000 domestic Model3 / modely vehicles and 150000 / 50000 export Model3 / modely vehicles.
er预计将于2023年推出。公司核心策略是继续提高产能且不增加产品复杂性，2022年上海超级工厂和加州弗里蒙特工厂产能将增加50%以上，同时柏林工厂和德州奥斯汀工厂也会在2022年Q1投产。4680CTC正式上车ModelY，德州工厂2022年Q1开启交付。’, ‘dstMusk guidelines updated. At the Q4 financial report conference in 2021, musk said that Tesla will not launch new models in 2022, and cybertruck, semi and roadster are expected to launch in 2023. The company’s core strategy is to continue to improve production capacity without increasing product complexity. The production capacity of Shanghai Super factory and California Fremont factory will increase by more than 50% in 2022. Meanwhile, Berlin factory and Texas Austin factory will also be put into operation in Q1 of 2022. 4680ctc officially entered modely, and Dezhou factory opened for delivery in Q1 2022.
Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. In the hundred year history of automobile industry, there is a production revolution every 40 years. From the Ford assembly line in the 10th century, to Toyota Lean Production in the 1950s, and then to Volkswagen platform and modularization in the 1980s. Tesla triggered a new round of automobile manufacturing revolution through 4680ctc + integrated die casting. 4680ctc scheme integrates the battery pack into the body and chassis, and is directly connected with the seat for assembly, so as to improve the production efficiency of final assembly. Integrated die casting scheme, forming with a press of more than 6000 tons at one time, so as to improve the production efficiency of stamping and welding.
Industry rating and investment strategy: in 2021, Shanghai factory will be opened to more domestic suppliers, and all links of the supply system will be fully introduced into corner B. Tesla’s sales volume increased rapidly, and Tesla’s business income of the original a-corner supplier still increased significantly α， The performance of new suppliers in corner B is flexible. As the core supplier of Tesla industrial chain, ASP continues to grow. By enabling domestic suppliers with highly integrated solutions, Tesla continues to expand categories and enhance system integration capabilities, thus promoting the value of supporting single vehicles, which is just the opposite of the traditional OEM supply system. This trend will also be reflected in the reform of the supply system of new forces. Since 2010, the gross profit margin of auto parts has not declined for more than three consecutive quarters. From Q1 to Q3 in 2021, the price of raw materials and freight increased, resulting in a continuous decline in the gross profit margin of parts. We believe that the profitability of auto parts will see marginal improvement in 2022. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Key recommended stocks: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting, which will promote the Tesla wave in the next stage. We expect that Tesla will appear in batches in 2022: Tesla will become the largest customer, and new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain of the top five customers. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , and pay attention to Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) .
Risk tip: Tesla Berlin plant and Texas plant are not progressing as expected; Tesla’s Shanghai plant expanded less than expected; The recovery of automobile chip shortage is less than expected; Tesla’s global sales fell short of expectations; Uncertainty of profitability of auto parts; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
