Event:
On January 26, the International Semiconductor Industry Association (semi) and the Japan semiconductor manufacturing device Association (SEAJ) announced the shipment amount of semiconductor equipment in North America and Japan in 2021, both reaching a record high. According to semi data, the shipment amount of semiconductor equipment in North America in December 2021 was US $3.92 billion, with a chain comparison of - 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of + 46.1%; Total shipments in 2021 reached a record $42.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 44.4%. According to SEAJ, Japan's semiconductor equipment manufacturing shipment in December 2021 was 303.37 billion yen, a month on month increase of + 7.7% and a year-on-year increase of + 71.0%; In 2021, the annual shipment reached 3076.76 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of + 37.1%.
Key investment points:
The global semiconductor equipment market continues, and the global wafer plant equipment expenditure is expected to continue to increase this year. According to semi and SEAJ data, in 2021, the shipments of semiconductor equipment in North America and Japan achieved high growth of 44.3% and 37.1% year-on-year respectively, the shipments hit a record high, and the equipment market maintained a high boom. According to semi's world Fab forecast, the global front-end fab equipment expenditure is expected to increase by 10% in 2022, exceeding US $98 billion, a record high, and achieve positive growth for three consecutive years after an increase of 17% in 2020 and 39% in 2021.
The world will build 10 new wafer factories in 2022, and the capital expenditure of TSMC on repair this year will reach more than US $40 billion. According to the world Wafer Factory forecast report released by semi last June, global semiconductor manufacturers are expected to build 29 high-capacity wafer factories by 2022, with capital expenditure of more than 140 billion US dollars. TSMC said at the 2021q4 law meeting that the capital expenditure of the last revision this year will reach US $40 billion to US $44 billion (US $30 billion in 2021), which continues to boost market confidence in the semiconductor equipment industry. 70% - 80% of the expenditure is used for advanced manufacturing process, 10% for advanced packaging and 10% - 20% for professional technology.
China's downstream capital development support continued, optimistic about China's domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment. At present, China Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Changjiang storage and Huahong group have entered the production expansion period, bringing order opportunities to domestic equipment manufacturers. China has become the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, and China's semiconductor equipment has achieved key technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields: the localization rate of degumming equipment is 90% +, the localization rate of etching, heat treatment and cleaning equipment is about 20%, the localization rate of PVD and CMP equipment is about 10%, while the localization rate of ion implantation and lithography machines is low. In the field of degumming equipment, Yitang semiconductor ranks first in the world in market share in 2020; In the field of cleaning equipment, shengmei Shanghai has entered the production line of customers abroad with megasonic cleaning technology, and the shipment in China is leading; In the field of etching equipment, there are many layouts of Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) and Yitang semiconductor. At present, the semiconductor industry has risen to the national strategic level and has a strong driving force for localization. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the semiconductor equipment industry whose localization rate is expected to continue to improve.
Risk factors: macroeconomic fluctuation risk and lower than expected risk of downstream capital expenditure
