The price increase shifts the cost pressure and improves the profit performance: according to the historical experience of the price rise tide in 2017-2018, the demand rigidity of condiments, leisure snacks, dairy products and other mass goods industries is strong, and it is easy to transfer the cost pressure to consumers through the price increase. Most enterprises have recovered from the decline of gross profit margin affected by the rise of costs after the price increase. Some enterprises, such as Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) , can maintain a higher gross profit margin level after the gradual decline of costs than before the price increase by maintaining the high product price. Affected by factors such as the cost control level of enterprises, the net profit performance of price increasing enterprises is different, and the net profit growth of Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) and Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) is more stable.
Segment leaders are easier to get out of the long-term market: compared with the second and third tier enterprises with weak marketing and channel ability, the leaders of each segment category with competitive advantage are easier to maintain price rigidity, and gradually restore or even improve product sales through marketing and other means, so as to get out of the long-term market with the support of performance improvement. In the price rise tide from 2017 to 2018, the share prices of Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) leaders of mass product segmentation increased by more than 20% half a year after the price increase, and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) increased by 38.50%. Second and third tier enterprises are subject to brand influence, consumer loyalty, marketing expenditure and other factors. They usually only go out of the short-term market when the price increase information is released, so it is difficult to keep the stock price rising continuously.
The current round of cost increase is even greater, and there is room for secondary price increase: under the background of the continuous rise of national commodity prices in 2021, the prices of raw and auxiliary materials of food and beverage such as soybean oil, molasses, soybean and barley have increased, and the prices of packaging consumables such as glass and pet have increased significantly, which has brought obvious cost pressure to consumer goods manufacturing enterprises. In 2021, the gross profit margin of condiment enterprises decreased, the net profit of leisure snack enterprises decreased year-on-year, and the profit growth rate of dairy enterprises decreased. In order to hedge the rising cost of raw materials and improve the profitability, popular product enterprises have chosen to raise prices since Q3 in 2021, ranging from 3% to 19%. On the one hand, compared with the general price increase of products, the current round of cost price increase is larger, and there is room for secondary price increase; On the other hand, as the rise in product prices is gradually transmitted to the profit side, the profit performance of mass product enterprises is expected to continue to improve.
Key investment points:
Since the beginning of 2021, with the continuous rise in the price of raw materials, the upstream cost pressure has gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches, crowding out the profit space of the mass goods industry and prompting enterprises to raise prices to cope with high costs. Comparing the required and optional products, the demand rigidity of the required products is stronger and the cost transfer ability is relatively stronger. Compared with the previous rounds of market, the highest range of ppi-cpi scissors difference in this round has reached a record high, and the high cost has brought a stronger driving force for price increase in the downstream manufacturing industry. In terms of the price increase range of mass product enterprises in the second half of 2021, it is difficult to cover the rising upstream costs, and there is room for secondary price increase. At present, the PPI has been at a high level, and the probability will fall this year. It is expected that the CPI will still rise slowly. The ppi-cpi scissors difference is expected to gradually converge, and the price rise will be gradually transmitted from upstream to downstream. From the historical experience, it is easier for the leaders of subdivided categories with brand influence and channel advantages to get out of the long-term market after raising the price. With the gradual release of cost pressure and the transmission of superimposed product price increase to the profit side, the profit and stock price performance of the leaders of mandatory products in the middle and lower reaches of 2022 are worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of dairy products, leisure snacks and condiments with long-term logic and competitive advantages.
Risk factors: consumption recovery is less than expected, epidemic risk and food safety risk.
