\u3000\u3000 Nantong Haixing Electronics Co.Ltd(603115) (603115)
[matters]
On January 27, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 218-222 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 73.15% - 76.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is expected to be 203-208 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.80% to 111.89%.
[comment]
The downstream market demand continued to be strong, and the company's performance increased steadily. In 2021, with the steady growth of traditional application fields and the vigorous development of emerging markets (photovoltaic power generation, new energy vehicles, data centers, etc.), the company's refined management mode and the results of R & D investment were revealed. During this period, the product structure was greatly optimized and quality control was deepened, realizing the double growth of operating revenue and profit. From the disclosed performance forecast (taking the median as the estimated value), even under the influence of power and production restriction under the "double carbon" policy in the fourth quarter, the company's performance has still made considerable improvement, which is in line with our previous performance forecast.
The short-term impact does not change the long-term positive trend, and we are firmly optimistic about the continuous outbreak of performance. From the perspective of single quarter, although a small amount of production capacity is limited in the very short term, and the cost side is facing the pressure of rising electricity prices, benefiting from the advanced introduction of clean energy, the "double carbon" policy has little impact on the company's production and operation. Q4's single quarter profit is still rich, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 58.8-62.8 million yuan, an increase of 68.49% - 79.95% year-on-year; The net profit deducted from non attributable parent is expected to be 52.9-58.9 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 87.53% - 104.93%. With the gradual implementation of production expansion projects for emerging markets, the company's performance is expected to maintain steady growth.
The orders of downstream customers remain abundant, and the supply and demand of capacity tends to be tight. Looking forward to 2022, from the current public information of the market, the popularity of emerging markets such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic is the main driving force to drive the demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors. At present, many downstream customers have reported that the order scheduling and delivery cycle of products have been significantly prolonged, and the market outlook remains high. At present, China's downstream customers are optimistic about the pace of domestic substitution, continue to look at the increase in demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, and have formulated corresponding production expansion countermeasures according to the orders in hand, which will help the company match the new production capacity and maintain the business state of full production and full sales.
Emerging markets are widely used, and high-end products are expected to increase profit margins. Taking photovoltaic inverter as an example, according to the information previously disclosed on the investor relations interactive platform Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Hunan Aihua Group Co.Ltd(603989) , aluminum electrolytic capacitor and thin film capacitor are the main solutions of distributed photovoltaic inverter. While promoting the continuous improvement of the penetration of high-end products, emerging markets are also expected to drive the improvement of the company's profit margin.
[investment advice]
Based on the performance forecast released by the company and the above various influencing factors, we maintain the prediction of the company's operating revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023, which are RMB 1.667/2.06/2.663 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 221/3.02/403 million, the EPS is RMB 0.92/1.26/1.68, and the corresponding PE is 25 / 18 / 14 times respectively. With the rapid development of emerging markets such as 5g, big data center, new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the dividends of high industry prosperity in combination with the continuous release of subsequent expansion capacity of raised investment projects. Therefore, we are firmly optimistic about the long-term improvement of the company's performance and maintain the "buy" rating.
[risk tips]
The progress of raised investment projects is less than expected;
The demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors is lower than expected;
The influence of energy consumption "double control" policy;
The progress of conversion of foreign enterprises to production was less than expected.
