\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Dun'An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) (002011)
Event: the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 380-430 million yuan in 2021, turning losses year-on-year, and a loss of 1 billion yuan in 2020; After deducting non profits, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 345 ~ 395 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 410.87 ~ 484.91%. Q4 company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 37.788 ~ 87.788 million yuan, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 32.455 ~ 82.455 million yuan after deducting non profits.
The performance forecast is in line with expectations, and the main business share and structure continue to improve
From the perspective of splitting, we expect that in the main household appliance refrigeration industry in the whole year, the revenue growth rate of accessories and special air conditioning equipment is about 40% +, 10% +, the annual revenue growth rate is 30% +, and the sales growth rate of electronic expansion valve (household + commercial) is more than 90%. Among them, we expect the revenue growth rate of Q4 company to be 10% +. If the impairment of 32.4912 million yuan is considered (the guaranteed group is expected to withdraw the total principal and interest for the part of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) mortgage collateral that is insufficient to be repaid), the actual net profit in a single quarter after reduction exceeds 100 million yuan; The company has raised the price of Q4 to overseas customers, and we expect the gross profit margin to increase significantly by about 3 ~ 5pct year-on-year.
In 2021, the company focused on its main business, and the market share of various products continued to increase. We expect that the market share of the company's household valves in China is close to 40%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 6pct +, ranking first in the industry, and the shares of electronic expansion valves and four-way valves have increased significantly. In the future, the company will actively adjust the product and customer structure on the basis of maintaining the overall share and scale stability. Gree will also give full play to the synergy and improve the market position of the company in the field of high gross profit valves and commercial products.
The thermal management business is developing smoothly and waiting for growth
We expect that the company will realize a thermal management business revenue of about 50 million in the whole year, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) is the largest customer, and the main products are electronic expansion valves, solenoid valves, etc. Based on the rapid increase of new energy vehicle heat pump models and the accelerated upgrading of Byd Company Limited(002594) model integration modules, we expect that the amount of orders in hand in the current life cycle is about 2 billion yuan. At the same time, the company has made breakthroughs in Geely, new forces of car making and other new customers and models; The fbev series large caliber electronic expansion valve launched by the company in 2021 has quickly achieved the fixed point of Byd Company Limited(002594) sc2e model, and will become the standard product of Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric battery direct cooling system in the later stage. The threshold of vehicle electronic expansion valve is high. In the future, it is expected to follow the household refrigeration pattern, form the duopoly of Sanhua and Dunan China, improve the product line of Dunan heat management, and increase the proportion of heat pump models, which will bring significant industry expansion and single vehicle value. It is optimistic about the long-term development space of the company.
Gree's entry into the master will drive business collaboration, capital and credit advantages and enhance competitiveness
At present, Gree's acquisition and participation in fixed growth are still subject to the review and approval of the national antitrust department. We expect that after the landing, the company's financial pressure and risks will be greatly eliminated, and the working capital will be supplemented to ensure the stability of operation in the future. The company is expected to develop in coordination with Gree, improve the position of household refrigeration parts industry, and effectively improve the competitiveness of the company's new energy vehicle thermal management business through Gree's industrial position, capital and resources.
Profit forecast and investment rating: from the perspective of valuation, the recent correction of the company's share price is obvious, corresponding to the valuation of about 18x in 22 years, with a high margin of safety. We believe that the double track development and growth space of the company's refrigeration + heat management system is huge. We expect the company's revenue to be 9.68/10.8/12.71 billion yuan in the 21st-23rd year, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.1 / + 11.6 / + 17.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.1/5.8/750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 141.3/40.9/29.2%, corresponding to 25.9/18.4/14.3 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the business development of new energy thermal management system is less than expected, the consumption of downstream civil air conditioning is less than expected, the promotion of the company's commercial business is less than expected, the bid winning of nuclear power project is less than expected, etc.
