\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) (002206)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be 570-590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 126.6% ~ + 134.5%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter will be 124-144 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.6% ~ + 41.2% and a month on month increase of - 19.5% ~ - 6.5%.
It is expected that the demand for vehicle silk will pick up and the prosperity of tire cord fabric will continue in 2022. The company's auto silk products are mainly supported by new cars. In 2021, China's auto market achieved a sales volume of 26.275 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, slightly lower than previous expectations, mainly due to the aggravation of core shortage in the third quarter, resulting in the decline of the company's auto silk sales. China Automobile Association predicts that with the improvement of automobile chip supply, China's automobile sales will reach 27.5 million in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7%, driving the growth of automobile silk demand. The company's cord fabric products are mainly used to replace the tire market, which is relatively less affected by the lack of core. The interior view of 2021 is good, and the sales volume has increased year-on-year. Due to the long production expansion and certification cycle of cord fabric, the new supply of the industry is limited in the future, and the product boom is expected to continue. In addition, the company has received its first order for reflective film materials in June 2021, which can be used to enhance the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic backplane.
The company is the leader of polyester industrial yarn for vehicles, and its overseas layout has laid a long-term advantage. At present, the company has three distinctive differentiated vehicle silk production capacity of nearly 150000 tons and cord fabric production capacity of 45000 tons. Its product performance has reached the international advanced level. It has successfully established strategic cooperation relations with world-famous tire manufacturers and automobile safety assembly manufacturers. The company's construction of overseas factories in Vietnam can not only avoid the risk of trade friction, but also save raw materials and labor costs. Its profitability is expected to be significantly ahead of Chinese competitors.
The project is intensively put into operation, and the three major businesses are in full bloom. The company's three major businesses have projects under construction, which will be put into operation, with strong certainty of performance growth. In terms of polyester industrial silk, Vietnam's 110000 ton industrial silk phase I project has been put into operation with 79000 tons and achieved full production. The products are gradually switched from ordinary silk to vehicle silk with the progress of customer certification, and the remaining 31000 tons of production capacity will be put into operation in due time according to the situation of epidemic control in Vietnam. In terms of tire cord fabric, the construction project of 15000 ton production line continues to be promoted and is expected to be put into operation in 2023. In the plastic material sector, 47000 tons of high-end calendering film capacity is under construction and is expected to be put into operation in 2023, and product promotion is also being carried out simultaneously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company is the leader of polyester automotive silk in China. It takes differentiation as its core competitive advantage and has high certification barriers. With the continuous recovery of automobile consumption and the gradual release of production capacity in Vietnam, the company's performance is expected to reach a higher level. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.48 yuan, 0.57 yuan and 0.65 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the product price drops, the progress of projects under construction is less than expected, and the exchange rate fluctuates greatly.
