\u3000\u3000 Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (600496)
The expected increase in performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the subsequent profitability is expected to recover. The company announced that it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 650-720 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 0% - 11% (median 5.5%) in line with the expectation; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 595-655 million yuan, an increase of 1% - 11% (median 6%). In 2021, although the company's cost side was under pressure against the background of rising prices of raw materials such as steel, the company actively improved its operating efficiency, reasonably controlled costs, and enabled management through digitization. The annual performance maintained a steady growth trend. Subsequently, with the weakening of the price fluctuation of raw materials, the profitability of the company is expected to recover. In 2021, the company signed new steel structure orders of 16.9 billion yuan, an increase of 13%, including 6.4/7.2 billion yuan for public buildings / industrial buildings, an increase of 34% / 16%; Orders of more than 4.4 billion yuan increased by 61% year-on-year, and the ability to undertake large orders continued to increase; Among industrial construction orders, orders from emerging strategic industries (5g, new energy vehicles, big data centers, etc.) account for about 80%, and orders from old customers account for about 58%. In 2021, the sales volume of steel structure was 1.02 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 34%. With the expansion of the company's business, the company's capacity demand continued to increase. At present, the company has successively started to build Lu'an Seiko Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park, Shaoxing fabricated steel structure integration demonstration base and Suqian production base. After reaching production capacity, the company's steel structure capacity will be increased by 200000 tons / 400000 square meters / 150000 tons respectively, After the completion of the new production capacity, it is expected to further enhance the company's advantages in steel structure production scale and strengthen the EPC order undertaking and execution capacity.
High quality photovoltaic roof and wall resources are abundant, and the development of building photovoltaic business is expected to accelerate. Under the current dual carbon development goal, China's distributed photovoltaic installation is expected to accelerate. Distributed photovoltaic power stations often need a large roof or wall area to generate sufficient power generation to ensure economic benefits, such as airports, railway stations, large parks and factories. However, such projects are scattered in China, so it is particularly important to obtain more high-quality roof and wall resources. The company has abundant customer resources for public construction and industrial construction. In 2020, the revenue related to public construction and commercial / industrial construction reached 3.1/5.6 billion yuan respectively, equivalent to a construction area of more than 10 million square meters; At the same time, a large number of completed projects of the company are also the resource base of the company's photovoltaic business development, which is expected to be gradually transformed through installation or transformation in the future. In addition, the company is more capable of building know Hao than its non building photovoltaic competitors, and has the service advantage of the whole construction industry chain compared with waterproof or other peers, so as to continue to build building photovoltaic orders to obtain advantages.
Prefabricated housing and apartment products are mature and are expected to benefit from the acceleration of affordable housing construction. The recent working meeting of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development pointed out that "we should adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, and raise 2.4 million sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing for the whole year". The raising target increased by 156% compared with last year, and the development of affordable rental housing is expected to enter the acceleration period. Different from the traditional commercial housing market, the core appeal of affordable housing is to put a large number of residential houses in a short time, with high demands for construction period and quality. At present, the company has developed mature prefabricated residential and apartment products in combination with PEC technology, which previously won the first prize of the national scientific progress award. It can realize rapid batch delivery through standardized design, manufacturing and installation. At the same time, it can solve the problems of hidden fire hazards, cracking, poor sound insulation and tremor of traditional steel structure residential buildings, so as to realize rapid and high-quality delivery, The company is expected to benefit from the rapid increase in the market demand for affordable housing construction.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.9/8.7/1.09 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6% / 26% / 25%, EPS will be RMB 0.34/0.43/0.54 respectively, CAGR will be 19% from 2020 to 2023, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 13 / 10 / 8 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of steel price fluctuation, the risk that the promotion of photovoltaic construction and affordable housing business is less than expected, and the risk that the expansion of EPC and fabricated business is less than expected.
