\u3000\u3000 Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) (002156)
Event: the company issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be RMB 930 million to 1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 174.80% to 195.48%. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 790 million to RMB 860 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 281.35% to 315.15%. Comments: the high growth of the company's performance is mainly due to the strong market demand of the company's international and Chinese customers in 2021 due to the accelerated development of global intelligence, the growth of demand for electronic products and other factors; Facing the direction of high value-added products and market hot spots in the future, the company has actively arranged the packaging technologies and production capacity of chipet, 2.5d/3d, fan out, wafer level and flip chip welding in the application fields of high-performance computing, memory, automotive electronics, display driver and 5g, forming a differentiated competitive advantage. Some projects and products have crossed the break even point and began to enter the harvest period in 2021, Core business continues to grow; At the same time, the company continues to accelerate the pace of technological innovation and fully carry out the construction of raised investment projects.
Raise funds to expand production capacity and help further improve market competitiveness. The company plans to raise no more than 5.5 billion yuan by means of non-public offering of shares for the construction of raised investment projects, supplement working capital and repay bank loans. The five production-oriented raised investment projects are memory chip packaging and testing production line construction project, high-performance computing product packaging and testing industrialization project, 5g and other new generation communication product packaging and testing project, wafer level packaging product expansion project and power device packaging and testing expansion project. After the above five production-oriented raised investment projects are completed, it is estimated that the annual revenue of the above five production-oriented raised investment projects will increase by 3.759 billion yuan, It is estimated that the annual net profit will increase by 445 million yuan. All raised investment projects are carried out around the company's main business. After the release of production capacity, the company can better seize market development opportunities and meet customer needs. The scale advantage is more prominent. The comprehensive product layout and strong large-scale production capacity complement each other. It is expected that the company's market competitiveness will be further improved.
Post Moore era advanced packaging + third generation semiconductor is expected to divert to the chip industry, and the company is looking forward to the layout of relevant technologies. With the advent of the post Moore era, the local semiconductor sector has ushered in a golden period of accelerated catch-up. Advanced packaging and third-generation semiconductors have great prospects in chip manufacturing. The company has the ability to seal and test the third generation silicon carbide semiconductor, has carried out relevant business, and is looking forward to the layout of advanced packaging 3D sealing and testing technology. Technology research and development has achieved fruitful results and continued to improve core competitiveness. For example, 1) in the field of advanced packaging technology: the project of 2.5d/3d packaging product technology has been completed, and the equipment and talents have been prepared for the construction of the line in the second half of the year; Many new fo products have been imported from many customers and passed the reliability verification. The development of new generation GPU application fo technology project for key customers has been completed. 2) Memory field: for ddr5 and other new products, new equipment setting, new material verification and relevant process reserves have been completed; 3) New energy automotive electronic application field: the company focuses on the development of power module technology and provides power module production solutions for customers at home and abroad. At present, it has obtained national patent authorization in the field of heat dissipation structure and related processes, consolidating the company's position as a leader in the sealing and testing of domestic automotive power devices. 4) FCBGA field: successfully completed the production of 6 Super large-size FCBGA samples, possessed the process capability of 5nm products and completed relevant certification, and maintained the company's leading position in FCBGA technology in the world.
Downstream applications have blossomed at multiple points, and the demand for intelligent, 5g, Internet of things, electric vehicles, home appliances, tablets and other end markets has increased. Aiot has entered the "accelerated stage" of development: the supporting intelligent technology has been mature and will grow rapidly in the next decade. The value of semiconductor in 2021 is expected to reach 250 billion yuan; The disruptive trend shown by automotive electronics can not be underestimated. With the accelerated penetration of aiot and new energy vehicles, the layout and admission of leading enterprises one after another, and the value and quantity of automotive semiconductors are expected to upgrade simultaneously. In 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million. In 2030, the cost proportion of automotive electronics in the whole vehicle is expected to increase from 18% in 2000 to 45%; The increase in the proportion of 5g smart phones has led to a significant increase in the value of semiconductors. 5g smart phone related components such as RF and camera are expected to continue iterative upgrading. According to IDC, 5g mobile phone semiconductors will account for two-thirds of the mobile phone market revenue in 2021. Under the condition of overcoming the capacity shortage in the global semiconductor supply chain, the company maximizes the capacity, improves the efficiency of resource allocation, and tries its best to focus on meeting the order delivery needs of key strategic customers through effective organization.
Investment suggestion: the company has long-term growth momentum under the logic of continuous improvement of the prosperity of its industry + domestic substitution + continuous increase of terminal demand. It is expected that the company's net profit in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be RMB 949 / 11.63/1678 million, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the performance forecast is the preliminary accounting data, subject to the annual report data. The sales volume of downstream products is less than expected, the capacity construction is less than expected, and the product R & D is less than expected
