\u3000\u3000 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) (605338)
Event: the company released the performance forecast of the 2021 annual report, which is in line with market expectations. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.35-1.4 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 38.4% - 43.6%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 305-315 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 73.8% - 79.5%. The investment income recognized by indirect shareholding Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) is expected to be 140-150 million, with a deduction of non attributable profit of 145-155 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.4-20.2%. Among them, single Q4 achieved a revenue of 377-427 million, a year-on-year increase of + 18.0% - 33.7%, a profit attributable to the parent of 79-089 million, a year-on-year increase of + 9.2% - 23.0%, and a deduction of non attributable profit of 44-54 million, a year-on-year increase of + 0.9% - 23.9%.
Revenue continued to increase, single store strength improved, and group meals continued to develop. From the revenue side, the company expects the operating revenue to be 1.35 billion yuan to 1.4 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 38.45% - 43.58% at the same time. Quarter by quarter, the revenue of 21q1-q3 company is 250 million yuan, 340 million yuan and 380 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 131.8%, + 39.8% and + 25.3% respectively. The expected revenue of 21q4 is 380 million yuan to 430 million yuan, an increase of 18.0% - 33.7% at the same time. At present, the single store is expected to have reached the best level in 18 years, and the year-on-year growth rate of the same store is expected to reach 20% in 21 years. On the one hand, breakfast consumption is high-frequency rigid demand. On the other hand, the measures taken by the company to provide the same store have achieved initial results, such as takeout business (coverage increased to 50-60%), upgrading of third-generation stores (coverage increased to 80%), launch of lunch and dinner new products such as xiaolongbao and Hu spicy soup. The improvement of single store model drives the acceleration of store opening, and stores in East China and South China open faster. The group meal business continues to grow at a high rate. It is expected that the revenue will increase by more than 50% at the same time. Under the comprehensive situation, the company's revenue will increase by about 40% in 21 years.
Cost decline + product price increase, profit margin began to recover. Excluding the non recurring gains and losses such as the investment income (140-150 million) of Dongpeng, it is estimated that the non net interest rate deducted in 21q4 is 11.6-12.6%, an increase of about 1.0pct month on month compared with 21q3. It is estimated that: (1) the pork price has declined greatly from Q3; (2) Shanghai phase II plant capacity climbing; (3) In November, the price of marginal products such as steamed bread was raised. However, at the same time, the higher year-end bonus of employees in 21q4 may affect the resilience of net interest rate.
Both ends of B and C are advancing together, and the income is expected to maintain a high growth in 22 years. Revenue side: in terms of store opening, the company attracts core franchisees and off-site acquisitions at the same time to promote the "volume increase" of stores. In the beginning of the year of 22, the company arranged the South China investment promotion fair in Jianli, Hubei Province. The opening of stores in South China is expected to continue the acceleration momentum. It is expected that more than 700 stores in Central China will be consolidated from April, and the overall net opening growth rate is expected to reach 30% in the year of 22. At the same time, various measures will continue to enable stores, such as takeout business Lunch and dinner products, increase the order amount of single store, and it is expected that the income of single store will still improve. In terms of group meal, the group meal division of the company will further expand its capacity and is expected to increase resource investment in the future. Profit side: with the continuous release and price increase of low-cost pork dividends in 21 years, the profit margin is expected to increase steadily.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating. Considering the steady growth of the company and the downward trend of the cost side, it is expected that the profitability of the company will recover and improve significantly in 2022. We adjust the profit forecast. It is expected that the revenue of the company will be 1.386/18.85/2.262 billion yuan, the net profit will be 3.11/2.67/326 billion yuan and the EPS will be 1.26/1.08/1.32 yuan respectively (the previous value is 1.04/1.00/1.25 yuan); Excluding the impact of changes in fair value profit and loss of indirect shareholding Dongpeng, the estimated net profit is RMB 199 / 267 / 326 million and EPS is RMB 0.80/1.08/1.32 respectively (the previous value is RMB 0.59/1.00/1.25). Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion is not as expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Food safety incidents.
