\u3000\u3000 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088)
Event: on January 27, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be about 50.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.1 billion yuan or 28%.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the performance increased significantly year-on-year and decreased month on month. According to the announcement, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 50.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 9.549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70.27% and a month on month decrease of 35.15%. We expect that the main reason for the decline of the company’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 may be the increase in impairment provision.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company’s coal output increased and the sales volume was stable. According to the announcement, the company completed 307 million tons of commercial coal in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and sold 482.3 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 8%. According to the announcement, the output of commercial coal in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 82.8 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.55% and a month on month increase of 15.32%. 1.207 million tons of commercial coal were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.79% and a month on month decrease of 0.08%.
The transportation business continued to improve. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company’s own railway turnover reached 81.8 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year and 14.25% month on month; The loading volume of Huanghua Port reached 56.5 million tons, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year and 15.07% month on month. The loading volume of Tianjin Coal Wharf reached 12 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.84% and a month on month increase of 3.45%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the shipping volume of the company was 30.1 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, a month on month decrease of 5.85%, and the shipping turnover was 29.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 22.69% and a month on month decrease of 2.34%.
With the new unit put into operation, the power generation in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased significantly year-on-year and decreased slightly month on month. In 2021, many units of the company were put into operation, and the power generation of the company increased significantly year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the power generation of the company was 43.42 billion kwh, an increase of 24.88% year-on-year and a decrease of 5.59% month on month; The total power generation was 40.84 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% and a month on month decrease of 5.57%.
The overhaul will affect the olefin production in the fourth quarter of 2021. According to the announcement, the coal to olefin unit of Guoneng Baotou Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, was overhauled as planned from September 15 to October 21, 2021, resulting in a decline in the production and sales of olefins in the fourth quarter of 2021, including 62.1000 tons of polyethylene, a year-on-year decrease of 26.94% and a month on month decrease of 22.86%; The sales volume of polypropylene was 56.1000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.26% and a month on month decrease of 28.63%.
Investment suggestion: with the rise of the benchmark price of the long-term association, the performance flexibility of the company is expected to be released. Adjust the profit forecast according to the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 50.305 billion yuan, 67.818 billion yuan and 70.10 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.53/3.41/3.52 yuan / share and PE of 9 times, 7 times and 7 times respectively on January 27, 2022. The valuation in the industry is low. In addition, the company announced that the cash dividend ratio in 2019-2021 will not be less than 50% of the net profit, while the actual dividend payment rate in 2019-2020 will be 58% and 92% respectively. Therefore, the dividend rate of the company in 2021 is expected to be no less than 5.39% (based on the share price on January 27, 2022), and the dividend rate is high. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply, the demand for thermal power is lower than expected, and the construction of projects under construction is slower than expected
