\u3000\u3000 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021 on the evening of January 26. In 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.8-2.4 billion yuan, reversing losses year-on-year; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses is 1.08-1.6 billion yuan.
Comments: if calculated according to the median value, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.1 billion yuan, mainly due to (1) the rising price of lithium salt products. As of December 31, 2021, the prices of battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide reached 270000 yuan / ton and 216000 yuan / ton respectively, up 435% and 341% compared with the beginning of 2021. 2) The investment income formed by the associated company sqm increased significantly. According to sqm announcement, the average sales price and sales volume of lithium products in the first three quarters of 2021 increased by 57% and 24% year-on-year. 3) The income from changes in fair value generated by sqm's class B stock collar option financing business and the investment income generated by hedging business are about 45 million yuan.
Sitting on the world's high-quality mining resources, the supply of raw materials will be fully guaranteed in the future. The company's Australian greenbushes mine is a global high-quality resource. The tailings pond project started by talison in 2019 is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of 2022, adding about 300000 t / a lithium concentrate capacity to talison. Shenghe lithium, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, owns the mining right of Cuola spodumene mine in Yajiang County, Sichuan, with lithium resources equivalent to about 630000 tons of lithium carbonate.
The lithium hydroxide plant in Australia is actively promoted. The 24000 T / a lithium hydroxide project of quinana phase I in Australia is being actively promoted. At present, the load commissioning of public works, rotary kiln and acidification kiln in fire process area, pressing section, purification and impurity removal, evaporative crystallization, drying and other process sections in wet process area have been completed, and the whole process has been completed. The company will begin to send product samples to customers, Strive to achieve the ultimate goal of reaching the design capacity by the end of 2022.
When the production expansion of sqm is carried out, the investment income is still expected to thicken the future performance. According to the sqm announcement, the lithium carbonate capacity of sqm2021 has reached 120000 tons / year, and it is expected to reach 180000 tons / year in 2022; Sqm expects that its lithium hydroxide capacity will be expanded to 30000 T / a by the end of 2022, and is demonstrating the feasibility and scheme of gradually expanding its lithium hydroxide capacity to 90000 T / A.
Profit forecast and rating: according to our annual strategy report, the global lithium carbonate will still be in short supply in 2022 and 2023. As of January 24, 2022, the market price of lithium carbonate has reached 357000 yuan / ton. Assuming that the market lithium price center in 2022 and 2023 is 250000 yuan / ton and 220000 yuan / ton, which are 113% and 87% higher than the average market price of 117000 yuan / ton in 2021, respectively. The company's new production capacity is also gradually released. We expect the company's lithium salt production capacity (including generation processing) to increase by 20000 tons and 51000 tons in 2022 and 2023 compared with 2021. Considering the strong downstream demand and the company's deep binding with LG, ski and other high-quality customers, we raised our profit forecast. It is expected that EPS will be 1.27 yuan, 5.10 yuan and 6.69 yuan from 2021 to 2023, up 154% / 368% / 289% respectively. Corresponding to 67 times, 17 times and 13 times of PE in 2021-2023. In view of the company's leading position in the global industry and the gradual improvement of its capital structure, we maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; The supply side capacity of the industry is released too quickly; Debt liquidity risk; The project construction of the company is less than expected; Safety and environmental protection risks; Overseas operation risk; Technology path change risk, etc.
