\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) (603890)
Lightweight helps to boost the mileage of new energy vehicles, highlighting the advantages of magnesium alloy. After the vehicle is electrified, it is always a difficult problem to improve the mileage, which restricts the penetration rate of new energy vehicles: due to the restriction of the current battery capacity density, the main way to improve the mileage of electric vehicles is to increase the number of batteries, but this will increase the weight of the whole vehicle, which will have a negative impact on the mileage, which also means to effectively improve the mileage, It is necessary to reduce the weight of parts outside the battery as much as possible, which highlights the advantages of magnesium aluminum structural parts: magnesium alloy is a product based on magnesium and combined with other technical elements. It has the characteristics of low density (1.8g / cm ^ 3), high strength, strong ability to withstand impact load and corrosion resistance. At present, magnesium aluminum alloy is the most common. Under the trend of lightweight new energy vehicles, the rise of new forces in China's car making and the industrial transformation of traditional car enterprises, the consumption of magnesium alloy per car is expected to usher in a high-speed growth stage: according to the data of China automobile safety development report (2017), the average consumption of magnesium alloy per car in North America is 3.5kg, while the advanced level in Europe can reach 14kg, The consumption of domestic vehicles is only 1.5kg per vehicle.
The structural parts of on-board display screen can be developed first, with rich application scenarios in the future, and there is considerable room for the improvement of single vehicle value. Driven by the trend of intelligent cockpit, large screen and multi screen have become the mainstream evolution route of on-board display, and the on-board display is changing from embedded mode to plug-in mode. Driven by this trend, relevant structural parts are required to have better load-bearing capacity, stability and aesthetics, and the advantages of magnesium alloy mentioned in the previous paragraph, Superimposed with the better appearance of the structural parts prepared by semi-solid injection molding process, the structural parts of vehicle display screen have become the preferred application scenario of magnesium alloy. The central control screen of Tesla Model 3 is equipped with magnesium aluminum alloy rear shell. Of course, the application of magnesium alloy will not be limited to this. Automobile steering parts, jacket, roof support, steering wheel, seat frame, door frame, latch cover, etc. are scenes that can give full play to the advantages of magnesium alloy. If the above scenes are developed, the value of magnesium alloy structural parts of single vehicle will be considerable in new energy vehicles in the future.
The preparation process of magnesium alloy structural parts has accumulated profound experience and has been approved by the customers of new energy vehicle factory. At present, the suppliers of vehicle mounted magnesium alloy structural parts are mainly Taiwan funded. However, with the increase of magnesium alloy consumption and the continuous expansion of application scenarios, considering the safety considerations involved in the production process of magnesium, the new energy complete machine factory is more inclined to seek new suppliers, and Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) when exploring the use of magnesium alloy in the field of notebook computer appearance parts, It has successfully broken through the technical barrier of "semi-solid injection molding", and has mastered the equipment use and supporting technology after years of training. Moreover, cutting from notebook computer structural parts to automotive electronic structural parts belongs to the "dimension reduction competition" of technology to a certain extent, so it has been approved by many brand manufacturers of new energy vehicles, Moreover, the core equipment involved in the semi-solid injection molding process is mainly supplied by Japanese enterprises, and the supply and demand of equipment is relatively tight. Chunqiu is one of the enterprises with the most smooth equipment acquisition and capacity expansion among domestic structural parts manufacturers, which means that the company has almost become the best choice for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle manufacturers. It is believed that after the release of new capacity, Spring and autumn is expected to successfully obtain relevant orders from new energy vehicle customers, so as to create the second driving force for the company's performance growth.
Although the growth base of the laptop industry is limited, the improvement of customer structure erodes the share of Taiwan suppliers. The reverberation of global notebook computer shipments after the epidemic has led many investors to blindly believe that the growth of Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) has been blocked. However, a closer study will find that the company has achieved good results in improving the customer structure in the past two years by relying on excellent mold design and manufacturing capacity, lean cost control and internal management. Of course, whether Dell In the final analysis, the development of new customers such as HP or the close cooperation with Chinese ODM plants such as Huaqin are actually the continuous erosion and substitution of the share of Taiwan and Hong Kong suppliers, which is quite valuable. Of course, the improvement of customer structure has brought continuous and stable order increment to the company, thus contributing to the smooth release of new production capacity And lay the foundation for the company's countercyclical growth.
Investment rating and suggestions: maintain the buy rating. The characteristic of Chunqiu company is to do in-depth cultivation in the industry. In mature fields where others can't grow or even give up, it just relies on its own efforts and ideas to find another way to hand over excellent answers with continuous high growth for many years. At present, the company adheres to the process accumulation in the application of magnesium alloy notebook appearance parts for many years, which coincides with the rigid demand for lightweight body of new energy vehicles, and the growth ceiling is further opened. We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 324 million yuan, 428 million yuan and 555 million yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 17.31, 13.13 and 10.11 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: (1) the supply chain of notebook industry is blocked due to chip supply shortage or blocking due to the epidemic, which will affect the overall shipment; (2) The recovery of the global notebook computer industry is lower than expected. (3) The dollar continues to depreciate unilaterally; (4) The progress of promoting the lightweight trend of new energy vehicles has slowed down.
