\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
[matters]
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 820-890 million, with a year-on-year increase of 50.87% - 63.75%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 770-840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50.20% - 63.85%, and the annual performance maintained a high growth. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 alone was 465-535 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.59% - 62.92%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 437-507 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.85% - 59.94%, which still maintained a bright growth rate under the high base.
[comment]
Under the large single product strategy, the popularity of the main brand has been further improved. The company's main brand "Winona" focuses on sensitive muscle repair. According to the product view data, during the "double 11" period in 2021, "Winona" ranked No. 6 in tmall beauty brand top 10. It is the only domestic brand in the list and the only domestic brand in the top 10 for four consecutive years from 2018 to 2021. Among them, during the "double 11" period, the company's core single product "Shumin moisturizing cream" sold more than 4 million bottles in the whole network, and the brand popularity and competitiveness continued to improve.
The new brand has outstanding performance and is expected to build a healthy skin ecology. 1) the company launched a new category of products around the Shing min product category, extending its category. In 2021, during the "double 11" period, it displayed bright eyes, and the "freeze-dried mask" sold over 2 million boxes. "Winona baby" entered Tmall baby skin care category TOP102022. The new brand is expected to continue to grow at a high speed, replicating the successful path of the existing large single product, contributing to the new growth pole for the company. 2) The new anti-aging brand is expected to be officially launched in the second quarter of 2022. It will position the high-end anti-aging skin care market with higher product prices. First, it will focus on offline medical and beauty institutions, and launch online channels after incubation. Relying on the Yunnan provincial laboratory led by the company, the overall R & D capacity is strongly guaranteed, and the company is optimistic about the creation of the product matrix under the skin health ecology.
Continue to make efforts through multiple channels and be optimistic about the release of brand effect. 1) tiktok Kwai and other traditional channels are growing rapidly, while new media channels are outstanding. In 2021, during the "double 11" period, Winona ranked the first 2/6/1/6 in Jingdong official store beauty makeup / vip.com beauty / sham beauty makeup / self makeup / fast hand beauty makeup class. In the context of the rising cost of traditional channels, the company will strengthen the construction of new channels and tiktok the channel's rapid growth. 2) The barrier of offline OTC channel is deep and there is great room for expansion. The cooperation between the company and offline chain drugstores is accelerated, and OTC and other channels have high requirements for product professionalism. It is expected that the company's long-term accumulated brand strength will show obvious advantages in the expansion of offline channels.
[investment advice]
Under the strategy of large single product, the brand strength of the company has been steadily enhanced and the market share has continued to increase. Product side, strong R & D ability to ensure the incubation of new brands; On the marketing side, medical endorsement enhances consumers' trust; On the channel side, online direct selling is the main way to ensure profitability, and multiple channels work together to maintain high-speed growth. We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company's operating revenue will be RMB 3.849/54.92/7.235 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45.98% / 42.70% / 31.74% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 834 / 1207 / 1591 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 53.48% / 44.76% / 31.78% respectively; EPS is 1.97/2.85/3.76 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 84 / 58 / 44 times respectively, and is rated as "overweight".
[risk tips]
The performance of the new brand is less than expected;
Stricter regulation of industrial policies;
The competition of brands in the same industry has intensified.
