\u3000\u3000 Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) (002156)
The performance forecast for 2021 shows high growth and maintains the "buy" rating
On January 27, 2022, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 930 million yuan to 1 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 174.80% ~ + 195.48%; Deduct non net profit of 790 million yuan to 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 281.35% ~ + 315.15%. According to the calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 227 million yuan ~ 297 million yuan in the single quarter of 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of + 196.14% ~ + 287.50% and a month on month increase of - 24.94% ~ - 1.78%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 158 million to RMB 228 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 179.92% ~ + 304.26% and a month-on-month increase of - 41.58% ~ - 15.64%. Q4 profit is affected by the accrued expenses at the end of the year, with a slight decline in the ring ratio. We lowered the profit forecast for 2021-2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 is expected to be 982 (- 0.59) / 1186 (- 1.08) / 1643 (- 108) million yuan, EPS is expected to be 74 (- 0.02) / 0.89 (- 0.08) / 1.24 (- 0.08) yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 22.9/18.9/13.7 times. The industry is booming, and the company's production and sales are booming, Sufficient growth momentum to maintain the "buy" rating.
The industry is booming, the company has strong demand for orders, and raised investment enhances the growth momentum
In 2021, affected by the accelerated development of global intelligence and the growth of demand for electronic products, the market demand of the company's international and Chinese customers remained strong; Facing the direction of high value-added products and market hot spots in the future, the company has actively arranged the packaging technologies and production capacity of chipet, 2.5d/3d, fan out, wafer level and flip chip welding in the application fields of high-performance computing, memory, automotive electronics, display driver and 5g, forming a differentiated competitive advantage. Some projects and products have crossed the break even point and began to enter the harvest period in 2021, Core business continued to grow. On January 25, 2022, the company announced that the fixed increase projects with a proposed fund-raising of no more than 5.5 billion yuan have passed the review of the CSRC, among which the raised investment projects are the construction project of memory chip packaging and testing production line, the industrialization project of packaging and testing of high-performance computing products, the packaging and testing project of 5g and other new generation communication products, the expansion project of wafer level packaging products and the expansion project of packaging and testing of power devices, After the five projects are completed, the company expects to increase revenue of 3.759 billion yuan and net profit of 445 million yuan each year, and its technical strength will be further improved. Advanced packaging is the development trend. With years of technology accumulation and continuous R & D investment, the company has the large-scale production capacity of chiplet packaging; In the field of CPU, GPU and server, based on 7Nm, advanced 5nm. At present, the process capability and certification of 5nm products have been realized, which will help CPU customers advance in the high-end in the future; The company's advanced packaging project won the "first prize of national science and technology progress", with strong strength and high growth potential.
Risk warning: there is a risk that the development of customers is less than expected, the market demand is less than expected, and the price of raw materials rises.
