\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued]2021 annual performance pre increase announcement. It is estimated that the annual revenue will be 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.0%; It is estimated that the revenue of single Q4 is 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.4%. The overall performance is in line with expectations.
The product structure has been significantly upgraded, the quantity and price have increased, and the quality has increased. 1. 21q4 company actively controlled goods in some markets, removed channel inventory, superimposed the spot outbreak of epidemic in Henan and other regions, resulting in the slowdown of revenue growth month on month; In addition, due to the disturbance of 21q3 Jiangsu market, the development of ground promotion and other market activities is limited, and some market activities are delayed to the fourth quarter, resulting in periodic pressure on 21q4 net interest rate. 2. In terms of products, it is expected that the 8th and well pad will be the main growth drivers. The company controls the delivery of old collections, and the new collections are still in the stage of channel investment promotion and mode introduction, which is expected to contribute a considerable increment in 22 years; In terms of split volume and price, the annual sales volume in 2021 was 11000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 40%; The corresponding ton price was 421000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.6%, mainly benefiting from structural upgrading and direct price increase. 3. The company continued to focus on the eight core markets. In the first three quarters, the top eight markets increased by 84% year-on-year, ahead of other markets. In addition, core cities promoted the sinking of channels, focused on group buying and banquet channels, and continuously optimized the channel structure.
The high-end strategy has been solidly promoted, and the implementation of incentives has stimulated vitality. At the beginning of 2021, the company made clear the three strategic plans of “high-end brand, product upgrading and marketing breakthrough”, and made substantive breakthroughs. 1. The company strengthened brand cultivation, deeply participated in spring sugar, promoted Lion King fair, tennis match and other activities, increased the development of tasting and banquet channels, and accelerated the release of brand potential. 2. The company firmly adheres to the high-end brand strategy, establishes a special high-end brand business department internally, attracts the representatives of core provinces to establish high-end liquor sales companies, makes full use of channel resources, and greatly improves the flexibility of channel operation; In September, the upgraded collection master Huan was newly listed, and the publicity resources were inclined to high-end collections. 3. The company successfully implemented the equity incentive plan. The draft equity incentive plan covers a wide range and has great incentive strength. It effectively realizes the deep binding of senior management team, business backbone and shareholders’ interests, and lays a solid foundation for the long-term and high-quality development of the company.
Enjoy the secondary high-end expansion bonus, and the reform bonus is expected to be released continuously. 1. 21q4 company takes the initiative to control the goods and go to the channel inventory. At present, it has entered the peak season of mobile sales in the Spring Festival. The core single product well platform and No. 8 equivalent sector are stable, the mobile sales are good, the enthusiasm of channel payment collection is high, and 22q1 has a good start. 2. The management of the company is active and promising, firmly promote the high-end brand, launch new collection products, lead the structural upgrading, focus on the group purchase and banquet market, and continuously optimize the channel structure; We will further strengthen the cultivation of consumers, continue to innovate in the marketing system, improve the flexibility of channel operation, have clear ideas for management reform, implement well, and the reform dividend is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.46 yuan, 3.29 yuan and 4.27 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 52 times, 38 times and 29 times respectively. The expansion of secondary high-end capacity is a long-term trend. The company has a clear strategy and a firm pace. The in-depth reform stimulates the growth momentum and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: economic downturn risk, covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk.
