\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event: the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.23 billion yuan – 5.54 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 70% – 80%; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of single Q4 was 360 million yuan to 660 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 42.6% – + 7.3%, and the performance basically met the expectations.
Take the initiative to control the goods in the fourth quarter to store energy in advance for the coming year. 1. The company has made good progress in completing the tasks of the whole year in the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, the company took the initiative to control the goods and sort out the channels. At the end of 21q4, the channel inventory level has reached a low level. The company took the initiative to slow down the pace, so as to stabilize the price and consolidate the terminal, so as to accumulate strength in advance for the high-quality development in 2022; 2. The profit growth of 21 single Q4 slowed down significantly. It is expected that the company will increase the investment in advertising and consumer cultivation, and the superimposed part of the tax expenses will be concentrated to the settlement in the fourth quarter, resulting in the phased pressure on the net interest rate.
In 2021, great achievements have been made and nationalization has reached a new level. 1. The company firmly adheres to the strategy of “focusing on blue and white, strengthening the waist and stabilizing Bofen”. Among them, the growth rate of qing20 is the leader, the revival version solidly promotes circle marketing and consumer cultivation, the introduction outside Panama and laobaifen is smooth, the momentum of Bofen under active control is still strong, and the product structure is continuously optimized; 2. The nationwide expansion of Fenjiu is unstoppable. At present, there are 28 billion market in China, more than 300 dealers are added in the whole year, the proportion of large merchants and excellent merchants continues to increase, and the number of controllable terminal outlets exceeds one million; The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other markets have gradually entered the harvest period of channel construction, and the channel turnover rate and consumer self ordering rate have increased year by year. 3. The company continues to promote the construction of echelon, flat and young marketing system, forming a 31 + 10 regional layout. At present, more than 80% of the heads of sales regions are post-80s. The marketing team is in full swing, and the key activities such as channel construction, price protection and consumer cultivation have been solidly promoted.
2022 has a promising start, and the growth rate is expected to lead the first-line famous wines. 1. According to the channel research feedback, before the Spring Festival peak season of 22 years, the inventory level of Fenjiu channel was at a historical low, the dealers paid actively, the heat of main single products such as blue and white, Bofen and so on continued to ferment, and the performance of 22 years can be expected. 2. Qinghua 20 has obvious advantages in brand power and channel power, and is expected to continue to increase at a high rate; Bofen has outstanding product strength and obvious cost performance advantages. Both Qinghua 30 revival version and Zhuyeqing are expected to achieve accelerated growth, and the potential energy of Qinghua and Bofen is strong; The company’s product structure blossoms at many points, with steady growth and full determination. 3. The new chairman is in his prime of life. In the past 22 years, he took the promotion of brand value as the primary goal, took advantage of the momentum to promote the higher quality development of Fenjiu, and clearly put forward the “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”. The direction is clear, the planning is clear, and the reform dividend is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The release of the company’s brand potential is accelerated and the national expansion is getting better. It is expected that the EPS will reach 4.44 yuan, 6.42 yuan and 8.80 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 64 times, 45 times and 33 times of the dynamic valuation, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: economic downturn risk, covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk.
