\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078)
The performance is in line with market expectations. The company disclosed the annual performance forecast of 2021. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.85 – 3.12 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 45.9% - 59.8%; The central bank was 2.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.8%; The company expects to realize a net profit of RMB 2.829-3.099 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 47.1% - 61.1%; The central bank was 2.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.1%.
We judge that the bottom of the performance has been achieved, and it is expected to improve gradually in the follow-up. According to the calculation of performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 82-352 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4% - 85.7% and a month on month decrease of 34.5% - 84.8% compared with 2021q3; The central bank was 217 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 62.0%. The net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021q4 was 108-378 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5% - 81.9%; 28.4% - 79.5% lower than 2021q3; The central bank was 243 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 59.2%. The main reasons for the pressure on 2021q4 performance are as follows: 1) the terminal demand is weak, the price increase is blocked, the double reduction policy intensifies, and the demand for cultural paper weakens; 2) High energy costs; 3) The rise in sea freight has led to the rise in the price of waste raw materials in the United States of Laos base and weakened the cost advantage. In the follow-up, the early suppression factors are gradually alleviating: 1) the energy cost has gradually returned to a reasonable range; 2) Sea freight has dropped somewhat; 3) The industry has been near the breakeven line for nearly half a year. The head paper enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. 2022m2-3 cultural paper price raising letters have been issued one after another. At the same time, small and medium-sized paper enterprises or some of them have withdrawn, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve. We believe that the performance of 2021q4 has reached the bottom, and it is expected that the company's profitability will start to recover from 2022q1.
The production capacity of Guangxi base has been put into operation one after another, and the integrated layout of Forest Pulp and paper is becoming more and more mature. In 2021, the cultural paper, household paper and supporting chemical mechanical pulp of phase I of Guangxi project have been put into operation. Together with the special paper project of the Department, the papermaking capacity of the company will increase by more than 700000 tons in 2021. At the same time, the rotatable cutting area of self owned forest land in Laos base increases year by year, the integrated layout of Forest Pulp paper of the company is becoming more and more mature, and the cost advantage is constantly consolidated.
Profit forecast and investment rating: under the pressure of weak demand and energy cost, the performance of 2021q4 is under pressure, and it is expected to be gradually repaired later. According to the performance forecast of 2021, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.97 billion yuan, 3.47 billion yuan and 3.98 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to pe10x, 9x and 8x. The early repression factors are gradually alleviated. We judge that the profitability will be gradually repaired. The current valuation is low and has a strong margin of safety. We maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Impact of imported paper, price fluctuation of raw materials, postponement of production capacity, etc.
