\u3000\u3000 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088)
Q4 may be dragged down by cost & impairment, and the price increase of the long-term association is conducive to the release of good performance. Maintain “buy” rating
The company released the performance forecast, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 50.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was about 50 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 31%. Throughout the year, benefiting from the improvement of coal sales and prices, the performance achieved steady growth. In a single quarter, Q4’s performance was lower than expected, mainly due to the increase of coal and power generation costs, the impact of provision for impairment losses, and the decrease of investment income. According to the performance forecast, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 503 (previous value 560) / 586 / 60.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.4% / 16.4% / 3.8%; EPS is 2.53 (previous value 2.82) / 2.95/3.06 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price, PE is 9.2 / 7.9 / 7.6 times. In the context of the increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term coal association, the company’s coal price center may move upward, which is expected to continue to have high profits. The stable high dividend and high dividend rate highlight the long-term investment value and are optimistic about the valuation and repair of the leading enterprises. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The simultaneous rise of volume and price is conducive to the release of annual performance, and Q4 supply guarantee promotes output growth
The production and sales volume increased year-on-year, and Q4 output released increment. In 2021, the cumulative coal production / sales volume was 30700 / 482.3 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% / 8%; Among them, the output of Q4 in a single quarter was 83 million tons, an increase of 15.3% month on month, or mainly driven by the guaranteed supply force. The sales volume of Q4 was 121 million tons, which was flat month on month. Considering the month on month growth of self-produced coal, the sales volume of purchased coal may decline. Coal prices increased significantly year-on-year, and Q4 continued its month on month rise. According to cctd data, the average annual long-term cooperative price of q5500 thermal coal in 2021 was 648 yuan / ton, up 19% year-on-year, setting a record high of the average annual price in history; Among them, the average price of Q4 was 744 yuan / ton, up 12.3% month on month. Although the spot coal price of the port fell high due to the price limit, the performance of the long-term association price was relatively stable. In terms of cost, the cost per ton of self-produced coal may increase year-on-year, which may have an impact on the gross profit per ton of coal.
The realized volume of power generation and transportation business increases, and the power generation cost may be under pressure
Power generation business: electricity sales increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the total electricity sold was 156.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%. The thermal power load increased sharply and the utilization hours increased significantly in 2021; Q4 electricity sales reached 41 billion kwh, down 5.6% month on month. Considering that the Q4 coal price is still rising month on month, the power generation cost may continue to be under pressure. Transportation business: turnover increased year-on-year. The railway turnover reached 303.4 billion ton kilometers in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. At the same time, the port loading volume and shipping turnover rate increased year-on-year.
The increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association is conducive to the release of good performance, and the high dividend yield highlights the investment value
In December 2021, the national development and Reform Commission raised the annual benchmark price of the long-term association to 700 yuan, an increase of 31% over the previous long-term benchmark of 535 yuan. The company will take the lead in benefiting from the high proportion of the long-term association sales model. According to cctd, the annual long-term agreement price in January 2022 remained at a relatively high level of 725 yuan, which continued to benefit the release of the company’s performance. In terms of dividends, regardless of special dividends, if dividends are distributed at the minimum promised dividend rate of 50%, the dividend is expected to be 25.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a dividend of 1.27 yuan per share. Based on the latest closing price, the dividend rates of a / H shares are 5.4% / 7.7% respectively. The dividend yield is still attractive, and the long-term investment value of the leader is prominent.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; The annual benchmark price of Changxie coal was lowered; Rising mining costs
