\u3000\u3000 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352)
Key investment points:
The world's leading integrated logistics service provider. While consolidating the timeliness express business, SF has made great efforts in e-commerce express delivery, vigorously deployed express, international express, supply chain, cold chain, intra city distribution and other businesses through endogenous incubation and M & A integration, and resolutely transformed to a third-party comprehensive logistics service provider. SF has become the largest integrated logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest express company in the world. While providing high-quality and fast express services, SF provides customers with multi industry, multi scene, intelligent and integrated intelligent supply chain solutions with rich industry experience and leading digital technology.
The express price war was suspended, and supervision guided the rationalization of competition. Social logistics is closely related to economic development. Under the impact of the epidemic, the start-up of enterprises is limited, but China's economy is the first to recover, and the online penetration of physical goods has increased rapidly. The rise of fresh e-commerce, live e-commerce and other new platforms began to impact the status of traditional e-commerce platforms and stimulate the growth of express demand. In 2021, the express supervision policy was issued to guide the rationalization of express prices, and the competition pattern of express enterprises was initially stable. In the long run, the competition among e-commerce platforms is expected to encourage e-commerce platforms to choose express companies with better services. Under the guidance of policies, the main battlefield is expected to shift from price war to service improvement.
Build a comprehensive third-party logistics based on timeliness, and layout the third-party comprehensive logistics in many aspects. SF will re tier express products, simplify the structure of express products and improve operation efficiency. Ezhou airport is expected to be put into operation in the middle of 2022, forming Shunfeng Skynet and consolidating the timeliness barrier. Sink the e-commerce express market, four networks financing, and the scale is growing rapidly.
Investment suggestion: the income of Express single ticket rebounded, the current round of price war ended temporarily, and the industry pattern was initially finalized. Industry competition has shifted from competing for the market at low prices to improving service quality and strengthening profitability through differentiated competition. The company's e-commerce preferential business of standard Tongda express slows down, but the strong brand potential can be transformed into competitive advantage, and e-commerce preferential parts occupy a large share in the medium and high-end market. The company's aging parts market is basically stable, exploring the economic parts market from top to bottom, developing logistics business in many aspects, and gradually building China's largest third-party comprehensive logistics service provider. After Ezhou airport is put into operation, it will complete the last puzzle of SF express timeliness network, further improve the product timeliness, feed the slow network with the advantages of fast network, and finally build a multi-level express product structure. Rely on big data to further control costs and improve efficiency. The company has diversified logistics forms such as express, cold chain and cross-border. Relying on the experience of acquisition and integration and advanced logistics technology, the company provides integrated supply chain services and transforms into a third-party comprehensive logistics service provider. For a long time, after Ezhou airport is put into operation, the new business layout of the company is completed, and the performance growth under the scale effect is expected to start again. The long-term logic is excellent, the performance inflection point is approaching, and the layout opportunity is coming. It is expected that the EPS in 2021 / 2022 will be 0.82 yuan and 1.46 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 76.99 times and 43.24 times respectively, maintaining the investment rating of "prudent recommendation".
Risk tip: the intensification of market competition leads to the decline of the company's profitability, the failure of Ezhou airport to be put into operation on schedule, the decline of macro-economy, the reduction of consumption capacity, repeated epidemics, etc.
