\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) (688611)
Key investment points
The prosperity of power grid investment has increased, and the structure tends to be intelligent
State Grid: Director Xin Baoan pointed out at the 2022 annual work conference that the planned investment amount this year is 501.2 billion yuan, a record high. China Southern Power Grid: the total investment in the "14th five year plan" power grid development plan exceeded 670 billion yuan, an increase of 22.3% over the actual completion of the 13th five year plan. It focuses on smart grid, distribution network (320 billion yuan) and energy storage, and proposes to speed up the construction of smart transmission inspection, Smart Substation and smart distribution, which has great enlightenment and reference for the investment direction of power grid in the 14th five year plan. Overall, under the background of steady growth and emphasis on new infrastructure, the prosperity of total investment in power grid is expected to be significantly improved, and more attention will be paid to the direction of intelligent and information investment in structure.
The State Grid South Grid has blossomed at multiple points, and the expansion outside the province has exceeded expectations
After the listing of the company last year, the brand strength was significantly improved, and the channel expansion was strengthened. The company accelerated the laying of marketing service centers in the key areas of the two networks, gradually began to harvest the previously cultivated Jiang / Beijing / Hubei / Shanghai / Anhui / Shandong / Sichuan markets, and continued to cultivate markets outside Guangdong / Guizhou / cloud / Shanxi / Xinjiang. It is estimated that the proportion of income outside the province will increase to about 20% in 2021. At the same time, the company's key products of substation monitoring have completed the South Power Grid Technology authentication and entered the South Power Grid new technology promotion and application directory; This year, other products are expected to continue to conquer the next batch of promotion directories of the south network. At present, the intelligent demand of China Southern Power Grid in the 14th five year plan is clear. It is expected that the orders / performance of China Southern Power Grid is expected to increase significantly this year, with a significant increase in the proportion.
The new model improves the efficiency of recruitment and the relay growth of new products
The new model improves efficiency: the company's power transmission and transformation IOT sensor type represents the product, which can realize convenient online ordering in the State Grid e-commerce platform - material accessories section, and the bidding mode is greatly simplified. New product development direction: the company's product technology extension has strong expansibility. It has been distributed for many years and extended to intelligent monitoring products in power transmission and distribution and other fields. It is expected to accelerate the application in pumped storage / battery monitoring and other fields, broaden the growth extension and shape a new growth curve in the medium and long term.
Equity incentive covers 30% of employees and is deeply bound to the core backbone
This equity incentive covers 66 people (accounting for 30%), which is conducive to binding the interests of the company's core personnel and enabling the team to cooperate to expand the market outside the province, develop and promote new products and models. The corresponding performance assessment target for 2022-2024 is to increase by 20% / 40% / 60% based on the average net profit from 2019-2021, which fully reflects the development confidence of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's performance from 2021 to 2023 will reach 118 / 162 / 228 million yuan, an increase of 11.5% / 37.1% / 40.9% at the same time, corresponding to the current share price PE of 29.11/21.24/15.07 times. The intelligent penetration rate of transmission, distribution and substation monitoring is low, and it is still in the early stage of growth. The company's performance is growing rapidly, with high certainty, and maintains the buy rating.
Risk tips
The intelligent investment of power grid is less than expected, and the supply chain risk is.
