\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
The company announced the performance forecast for 2021. The net profit in 2021 increased by 51% – 62% year-on-year and 42% – 63% year-on-year in Q4. Winona, the main brand, continues to enrich product iterations and expand channels; The sub brand Winona baby is gradually developing; After the launch of new anti-aging products, it also brings a new growth curve and maintains the buy rating.
Key points
The continuous hot sales of the main brand winonado products and the continuous expansion of its channels have promoted the high growth of the company’s performance. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to increase by 50.87% – 63.75% year-on-year to RMB 820-890 million; In Q4 single quarter, the net profit increased by 41.59% – 62.92% year-on-year to 460-530 million yuan. The main brand, Winona, based on the strong product force superimposed diversified marketing mode, has successfully created a variety of sales products, including special cream, Shu Min essence, Shu Min moisturizing mask, water pump cream and freeze-dried mask. During the double eleven period, 2 million boxes of freeze-dried mask sold on the shelves were sold out. In addition, the company has a significant advantage online. During the double 11 days of 2021, tmall ranked No. 6 in the category of beauty and skin care, and was shortlisted as the top 3 in the category of beauty in Jingdong official flag store; Offline channels continue to make efforts, including OTC and Watson channels. The company’s performance growth is continuously driven by abundant hot selling items, online dominant position and offline channel expansion.
Future highlight 1: the main brand products are abundant in reserves, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) improve the layout, and the sustained high growth rate in the future is worth looking forward to. Product side: the company will continue to drive growth through product expansion. According to the information of the State Food and drug administration, since December 2021, the filing of Winona’s new products has exceeded 15 models, and the product reserve is relatively sufficient. Channel side: online, the company pays attention to the creation of private traffic, and the tiktok self shop is also continuously strengthened. Offline, there are still large gaps in OTC and Watson channels, and the company will improve and supplement them in an orderly manner.
Focus 2 in the future: Winona baby will gradually make efforts, and the new brand will also bring new increment. Winona baby is the leader in infant skin care. In the future, the products will further refine the product layout, solve the problems of infants and young children of different ages, and become the second growth curve in the future. In terms of new brands, according to the company’s announcement, they will develop in the form of start-up companies, with the management of the company’s investment and operation team holding shares, and incubate them with the company’s business ability, so as to stimulate the enthusiasm of employees to the greatest extent.
Valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.840/52.23/6.770 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 816/11.18/1.442 billion, corresponding to 84 / 62 / 48 times of PE respectively. Maintain a buy rating.
Major risks
The expansion of new products is less than expected; The transformation of private domain traffic is blocked; Offline channel cooperation is blocked.
