\u3000\u3000 Beijing Supermap Software Co.Ltd(300036) (300036)
The company issued a performance forecast, with a performance growth rate of 20-30% in 2021. On January 27, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 280-310 million yuan, with a growth rate of 20% - 30%; Deduct 270-290 million yuan of non net profit, with a growth rate of 20% - 31%.
Pay close attention to digital transformation, and support the growth of the company through information innovation and new infrastructure. As the company's performance is mainly settled in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the repeated epidemic has a certain impact on the company's revenue recognition and business collection; At the same time, the company seized the development opportunities of digital transformation, information innovation, new infrastructure and other industries, continued technological innovation, multi-dimensional market development, improved the user capacity of "digital empowerment", and the scale of operating revenue continued to expand.
Traditional businesses are expected to usher in opportunities such as Xinchuang, and the potential of emerging businesses such as yuanuniverse is expected. 1) Traditional business: in terms of information innovation business, according to the information disclosed by the company, the company has obtained two pilot projects at the ministerial level, and there are also benchmark pilot projects at the provincial and municipal levels. Among them, the number of orders won by ministries and commissions in 21 years is expected to reach ten million; In the field of three-dimensional GIS, the volume of single products of three-dimensional GIS is 1.5-2 times that of two-dimensional GIS, and there will be application market opportunities at the same time. 2) Emerging business: as the leader of GIS in China, the company collects massive multi-source heterogeneous data to fully express the digital world, or it is an important base of meta universe technology. On this basis, the company has made multi-point layout for emerging businesses. In the game field, the company's game engine plug-ins have been put on the shelf in the fantasy mall, and the number of downloads has exceeded 60000 (as of December 14, 2021); In the military field, simulation training is one of the main contents of the company's military business. Related businesses integrate the company's new generation of 3D GIS technology, game engine products, VR and other related applications.
Investment suggestion: the company is a scarce target in subdivided fields and has a leading position in China. It is expected to further obtain overseas leading share through opportunities such as domestic substitution. At the same time, it has medium and long-term development potential in various emerging businesses such as land and space planning, three-dimensional, military industry, overseas and "yuancosmos". It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 306 / 3.9/476 million yuan, EPS will be 0.62/0.80/0.97 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 38x, 30x and 24x respectively. We select Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) and Geovis Technology Co.Ltd(688568) companies in the computer industry with geographic informatization as the main business as comparable companies. The average PE (wind unanimously expected) of relevant companies in 2022 is 44x. The company has certain valuation advantages and maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the product popularization progress is not as expected; New technology competition intensifies; The implementation progress of ecological cooperation was less than expected.
