\u3000\u3000 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 40 billion yuan to 42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.9% – 120.39%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.8 billion yuan to 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248.95% – 285.68%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be RMB 3.5 billion-3.9 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 267.38% to 309.37%.
Analysis and judgment:
The annual performance increased rapidly, and the production capacity of photovoltaic 210 products accelerated
According to the median calculation of the announcement data, the company’s revenue in 2021 was 41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.14%, and the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 267.31%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 288.25%. In 2021, the company’s revenue and net profit increased significantly, mainly because on the one hand, the company took advantage of 210 product differentiation and cost advantages to accelerate the improvement of semiconductor photovoltaic 210 product capacity; At the same time, through a series of technological progress, the production efficiency of a single furnace was improved, and the silicon material consumption rate of unit product decreased significantly year-on-year. Through the improvement of thin line and flake process, the silicon wafer yield and product a rate increased significantly, and the gross profit of unit product was improved to a great extent; On the other hand, facing the price fluctuation of polysilicon raw materials, the company has reasonably controlled the inventory through long-term good supply chain cooperation to ensure the production and operation of the company. Quarterly, according to the median calculation, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 11.911 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 109.70% and a month on month increase of 4.07%. Q4 achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.238 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 409.47% and a month on month decrease of 3.43%. Q4 net interest rate reached 10.39%, up 4.30 percentage points year-on-year. With the application of industrial 4.0 and flexible manufacturing intelligent factory production mode in the operation process and operation scenario of various industrial sectors of the company, the per capita labor productivity has increased significantly to more than 10 million yuan / person / year. The quality and consistency of products have been continuously improved, the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials has been effectively improved, and the operation cost of the factory has been continuously reduced. At the same time, we have cooperated with upstream and downstream customers to establish a flexible cooperation mode, reduce transaction costs and improve the competitiveness of ourselves and customers.
The capacity release of semiconductor materials business accelerated, and the scale efficiency improved significantly
By accelerating the commissioning of new production lines, the company’s semiconductor materials business releases effective production capacity and improves product supply capacity. The production and sales scale has increased significantly year-on-year. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company has formed a monthly production capacity of 650000 pieces in 8 inches and 100000 pieces in 12 inches. It is expected to achieve the set goal of 750000 pieces in 8 inches and 170000 pieces in 12 inches by the end of 2021. The company accelerated technology research and development and customer certification, rapidly upgraded product dimensions, and accelerated the layout of new products; The new investment projects in Tianjin and Yixing, Jiangsu have been successfully promoted. The company has signed long-term strategic cooperation agreements with a number of chip manufacturers, laying the foundation for business development. While accelerating the capacity expansion of Jiangsu large silicon wafer project, the company plans to start the production expansion of Tianjin factory. At present, phase I of the 8-12 inch large silicon wafer project has entered the final stage of acceptance, and phase II of the project has been started in advance to accelerate capacity expansion.
Investment advice
According to the company’s performance express, the profit forecast for 2021 is adjusted. In 2021, the company’s revenue is adjusted from 44.108 billion yuan to 41.044 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted from 4.014 billion yuan to 3.988 billion yuan, and EPS is adjusted from 1.24 yuan to 1.23 yuan. The profit forecast for 2022-2023 remains unchanged. The revenue in 2022-2023 is 63.225 billion yuan and 70.808 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.490 billion yuan and 6.455 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 1.70 yuan and 2.00 yuan respectively. 2021-2023 corresponds to the closing price of 42.60 yuan / share on January 27, 2022, and the PE is 35 / 25 / 21 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The demand of semiconductor market is not as expected, the competition in semiconductor silicon wafer industry is intensified, systemic risks, etc.
