\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (603997)
Event overview
The company announced 2021 performance forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 110 ~ 165 million yuan in 2021, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will be about 77 ~ 115 million yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
Performance turns loss into profit, waiting for continuous improvement
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 110-165 million yuan and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 77-115 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. It mainly benefited from the remarkable integration effect of grammer and the improvement of profitability. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is – 51 ~ 03 million yuan, which is 36 / – 27 million yuan compared with 2020q4 / 2021q3, 66 ~ – 28 million yuan deducted from the net profit attributable to the parent company, and 103 / – 35 million yuan compared with 2020q4 / 2021q3, which is under pressure as a whole. We judge that it is mainly affected by the lack of core, the rise of raw material prices and the increase of R & D expenses. With the steady progress of integration, the lack of core and the price rise of raw materials are gradually alleviated, and the performance is expected to be significantly improved in 2022.
Breakthrough in domestic replacement of passenger car seats from 0 to 1
In October 2021, the company obtained the fixed point of the passenger car chair project of a new power brand main engine factory, which is a breakthrough from 0 to 1. It is expected that the value of a single car will increase from 300-400 yuan (headrest + armrest, tier2) to 5000 yuan (seat assembly, Tier1). Due to high technical barriers, passenger car seats have long been monopolized by Andorra, Lear and other foreign suppliers. The company is the leader in the subdivision of seat headrests in the world. We estimate that the global market share is more than 25%, reflecting strong cost control ability. It is not expected to accelerate the share in the field of passenger car seats and open up growth space by virtue of cost performance and rapid response ability.
Comprehensive coordination refers to the global intelligent cockpit leader
Jifeng Group acquired grammer, Germany, in 2018, completed the delivery in 2019 and began the consolidation in Q4, 2019and started the comprehensive integration in 2020, including the adjustment of grammer’s organizational structure, multiple measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the layout integration of production base, which highlighted the improvement of operation. At the same time, grammer and Jifeng jointly explore the market, enable products and customers to import each other, and jointly improve the market share. Facing the Centennial revolution of Electric Intelligence in the automotive industry, the company actively embraces and expands new intelligent products such as passenger car seats, audio headrests, mobile central control system and armrests, 3dclass glass technology, vertically arranges smart home heavy truck cockpit, electric air outlet, etc., and breaks through new forces of car making such as Tesla, velai and ideal, In the long run, “dajifeng” is expected to give full play to grammer’s century old technical advantages such as seats and Jifeng’s flexible mechanism of private enterprises to impact the trillion market of intelligent cockpit and point to the global leader.
Investment advice
The integration effect is becoming more and more obvious, and the expansion of new products and new customers is accelerated. Dajifeng (Jifeng + grammer) is expected to become the leader of global intelligent cockpit in the future. Taking into account the impact of core shortage and rising prices of raw materials, adjust the profit forecast: it is estimated that the revenue in 2021-23 will be reduced from RMB 178.6/207.0/24.43 billion to RMB 165.4/195.2/23.51 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be reduced from RMB 290 / 54.4/840 million to RMB 140 / 53 / 840 million, and the EPS will be reduced from RMB 0.26/0.49/0.76 to RMB 13 / 0.49/0.76 billion, corresponding to pe83 / 21 / 14 times of the closing price of RMB 13.87 on January 27, 2022. Considering the high growth of passenger car seats, the company is given a PE valuation of 25 times in 2023, the target price is adjusted from 12.25 yuan to 19.00 yuan, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips
The sales volume of passenger car industry is lower than expected; The progress of integration is less than expected; Customer expansion is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; Increase of raw material cost, etc.
