\u3000\u3000 Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(688658) (688658)
In order to focus on R & D and innovation, the company will build a high-end chemical medicine leader integrating API and preparation. Founded in Beijing in 2001, the company covers the whole industrial chain of drug R & D, manufacturing, circulation and sales, and has the production capacity of various high-end dosage forms such as injections, lyophilized powder injections, tablets, capsules and some APIs. After 20 years of development and accumulated strong R & D strength, it has been selected as the best industrial enterprise in the China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) R & D product line of the Ministry of industry and information technology for 8 consecutive years. Recently, the equity incentive plan was released, and the unlocking conditions have made requirements for performance and research ability. In terms of the company’s performance, taking the net profit in 2021 as the base, the growth rate from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 30%, 69% and 119% respectively, that is, the three-year net profit growth Rate CAGR is 30%. The unlocking conditions are expected to boost the performance take-off.
Innovative platform pharmaceutical enterprises are emerging, with rich R & D pipelines, and comprehensively start a new journey of innovative drugs. The company has formed four core technology platforms: slow and controlled release preparation technology, drug crystal form research technology, high-end pharmaceutical excipients R & D technology and fine preparation technology platform of cardio cerebrovascular injection. Through the acquisition of Tianlong pharmaceutical, the company has laid out a new platform for nucleic acid drugs. The product pipeline is in full bloom. At present, the company has 45 research projects and 13 key products, including 7 nucleic acid drugs, 5 traditional Chinese medicines and 1 chemical medicine. Recently, it has carried out polypeptide drug research with the pathogen Institute to continue to promote innovation and transformation.
The three heavyweight products provide growth momentum, and traditional products benefit from centralized purchase. The company has a wide range of products, the core product Ginkgo biloba extract injection, new indications for ear blood flow and neurological disorders, and the restrictions on the use of grade hospitals have been relaxed, which is expected to achieve high growth; Huoxin pill, a traditional Chinese medicine product, is a class a basic drug for medical insurance. It has just entered the sales starting period. With the improvement of the coverage rate of grass-roots hospitals, it is expected to increase rapidly; Class 1.1 new drug aldenafil has been approved, which has the characteristics of good safety, fast onset, low dose and high efficiency. It is expected to replicate the Jango mode and realize overtaking in curves; The integration of API and preparation benefits from the centralized purchase of traditional varieties. The company adheres to the independent control of raw materials, which makes the company have stronger control over the production cost of chemical preparations and have more economic advantages in the face of centralized purchase. The company’s metformin hydrochloride sustained-release tablets won the bid in the third batch of national centralized purchase in 2020. Although the gross profit margin narrowed, the decline was limited. With the help of centralized purchase, the company further increased the share of products in the terminal market of public hospitals.
Profit forecast: we predict that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.209 billion yuan, 6.812 billion yuan and 8.989 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1%, 30.8% and 32.0%; From 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million, 767 million and 1072 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.8%, 36.8% and 39.8%, corresponding to EPS of 1.25, 1.70 and 2.38 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price was 19.88, 14.53 and 10.39 times. The company’s three heavyweight products are in large quantities, and there are rich R & D pipelines. It is expected to continue to boost performance, cover for the first time, and give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of new drug research and development; Drug quality risk; Sales channel risk, etc.
