\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co.Ltd(600458) (600458)
Investment summary
The company deepened the reform of central enterprises, built a new industrial engineering division, and promoted the strategic position of the industrial shock absorption sector.
In order to further deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, promote the modernization of corporate governance system and governance ability, and improve the operation efficiency of the company, the company has set up a new industrial engineering division to further reduce costs and improve efficiency, so as to lay a foundation for the performance assessment and index formulation of all businesses of the company.
The vibration reduction and isolation industry has large space and deep barriers.
Vibration reduction and isolation technology is widely used in national life, including construction industry, industrial industry, national defense and military industry, nuclear power and so on. Through the integration of products and services, technology accumulation and product reputation, two barriers have been established for the industry, and it is difficult for the latter to occupy the upper position.
The rail transit vibration damping industry is growing steadily, and the company's product scale ranks first in the world.
Vibration and noise reduction of rail transit is mainly used to reduce the impact of noise and vibration caused by train operation on sensitive targets. The Chinese market has benefited from the construction of "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network and the target of 3000 km of urban rail construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with stable growth; The prospect of foreign market is broad and the expandable space is large; In 2025, the demand scale of rail transit industry for polymer materials will reach 20 billion. The company started with rail transit vibration reduction, and the scale of rail transit vehicle vibration reduction ranked first in the world. The net profit of rail transit business division of 2021h1 company was 263 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, undertaking the important task of ballast stone for the company's performance.
The policy promotes the construction vibration reduction and isolation industry to usher in new growth and open up new space for the company.
China is prone to earthquakes, but its anti-seismic technology is relatively backward. The regulations on the administration of earthquake resistance of construction projects passed in May 2021 put forward mandatory requirements to quickly promote the development of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) shock absorption industry. In addition to policy support, earthquake reduction and isolation technology will help carbon neutralization or further stimulate industry demand. It is expected that the market space will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025. The company is the first echelon of bridge and building vibration reduction and isolation track. Its products are rich and widely used. It gradually makes efforts to reduce and isolate building vibration. The increase of orders is worth looking forward to.
LNG shock absorption is just needed, and the company's products are accelerated to be replaced by domestic products.
With the promotion of the construction of "coal to gas" and "production, supply, storage and marketing" system of natural gas, the increase of natural gas demand is an inevitable trend, and LNG shock absorption is just needed. In terms of market scale, the total receiving capacity of China's LNG terminals will reach 150 million T / a by 2025. In terms of LNG shock absorption, the company has developed hdr800 high damping rubber isolation bearing, breaking the monopoly of foreign technology and accelerating domestic substitution.
The wind power industry is booming, and the company's wind power damping products are leading the industry.
In the context of carbon neutrality, the prosperity of the wind power industry is rising. During the "14th five year plan", China's wind power has an average annual installed capacity of more than 50gw, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power may decline in 2022, but it is still the source of long-term growth, and the installed capacity of onshore wind power in 2022 is supported. There is still room for growth in the global / Chinese wind power blade damping market in 2025. As the standard setter of wind power vibration and noise reduction industry, the company is in the forefront of the industry.
The gap of military helicopter is still large, and the vibration reduction and isolation of military industry is worth looking forward to.
Compared with the United States, there is a large gap in China's military helicopters. In recent years, military funds have risen, China's defense expenditure has increased steadily, and is expected to remain unchanged. The purchase of Chinese military helicopters is guaranteed. Since the company obtained all the qualifications to enter the military products market in 2012, it has acquired military products companies. The company's core technology of vibration and noise reduction has gradually extended rapidly to the military industry and further developed the military industry market.
Investment advice
Vibration reduction and isolation technology has a wide range of applications, high barriers to competition and large industry space. With the steady growth of urban rail high-speed railway construction, the rail transit vibration reduction industry ushers in a policy dividend period for building vibration reduction and isolation. LNG vibration reduction and isolation is just in demand under the background of energy transformation, the prosperity of wind power vibration reduction and isolation is rising, and the window of military vibration reduction and isolation industry is gradually opened. The company is deeply engaged in the earthquake reduction and isolation industry, and develops multiple businesses at the same time, and is a leader in many industries. We expect the growth rate of the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be - 3.9%, 15.6% and 14.3% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company to be - 39.9%, 136.3% and 52.3% respectively. The corresponding PE valuations are 48x, 20x and 13X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic and depression of automobile industry; The risk that the promotion of industrial shock-absorbing products is less than expected; Risk of sales falling short of expectations.
