\u3000\u3000 Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) (601021)
Event: the company issued the announcement of 2021 earnings forecast. In 21 years, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 35-52 million yuan, turning losses into profits over the same period of last year (a loss of 590 million yuan in 2020); In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company realized a net loss attributable to the parent company of about 110 million yuan to 120 million yuan, which was significantly reduced compared with the same period in 2020 (loss of 440 million yuan), and changed from profit to loss compared with the third quarter of 21 years (profit of 150 million yuan). In 2020, the company recognized the investment loss of spring and autumn Japan and accrued the impairment, resulting in the loss. In the 21st year, this event will no longer affect the company's pre profit. However, excluding the impact of non recurring profits and losses such as financial subsidies, the company's net deduction of non recurring losses in 21 years was 70-130 million yuan, which was significantly reduced compared with the same period of the previous year (a loss of 800 million yuan in 2020); Among them, the company realized a net loss of about 120 million yuan to 180 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 21, which was significantly reduced compared with the same period in 2020 (loss of 490 million yuan), and changed from profit to loss compared with the third quarter of 21 (profit of 120 million yuan).
China's aviation demand recovered, and the company ask rebounded. The company's ask (available seat kilometers) in 2021 increased by 9.6% compared with the same period in 2020 and decreased by 5.1% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, China's passenger transport demand recovered well. The ask of Chinese routes in 2021 increased by 17.4% compared with the same period in 2020 and 47.0% compared with the same period in 2019; The supply and demand of overseas airlines are still at a low level. In 2021, the ask of international routes and regional routes decreased by 98.7% and 91.7% respectively compared with the same period in 19 years. The company's comprehensive seating rate in 2021 was 82.9%, an increase of 3.2pct compared with the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 7.9pct compared with the same period in 19 years. The company operated 113 passenger planes at the end of December 2021, an increase of 10.8% over the end of 2020, higher than the growth rate of the same period last year (9.7%).
The revenue of passenger kilometers increased, and the revenue increased year-on-year. China's aviation demand recovered in 2021, and the company quickly released production capacity by virtue of its competitive advantage. In 2021, the passenger seating rate of the company recovered to more than 80%, which promoted the passenger turnover in 2021 to increase by 14.02% year-on-year and return to 87% of the level in the same period of 19 years. However, the overall oversupply in the Chinese market has suppressed the increase of average ticket prices. Based on the above, the company achieved an operating revenue of 8.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, an increase of 26.5% over the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 25.3% over the same period in 2019.
Refined management further improved its efficiency and promoted the year-on-year improvement of the company's gross profit margin. The annual average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 is about 70.9 US dollars / barrel, which is significantly higher than that in 2020 (43.0 US dollars / barrel), putting great pressure on the operating cost of the company; In addition, the entry of operating lease into the statement also has a negative impact on the company's cost. The company's depreciation and amortization + aircraft / engine leasing fee + interest expense in the first half of 21 years increased by 12.1% compared with the same period in 2020. However, the company further improved its efficiency through fine management, and the non oil unit cost decreased year-on-year in 2021. Based on the above, the gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters of 21 years was - 0.6%, up 6.5pct year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the company relied on the advantage of low cost to ensure the rapid recovery of ask, leading the companies in the same industry; At the same time, the company made a slight profit under the pressure of rising oil prices and operating leases, which continued to prove the company's market competitiveness; In addition, the company continues to maintain a positive expansion strategy (it is proposed to increase the purchase of aircraft by no more than 3.5 billion yuan). With the recovery of aviation demand in the future, the profitability of the company will recover rapidly, and the growth will be gradually reflected. Considering that the covid-19 epidemic lasted longer than expected, we lowered the company's EPS forecast for 21-23 years by 84% / 49% / 42% to 0.04 yuan, 0.90 yuan and 1.57 yuan respectively; Maintain the company's "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the duration and scope of covid-19 pneumonia exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic downturn affects aviation demand; The hourly capacity of the airport increases slowly; The passenger throughput of overseas routes grew slowly.
