\u3000\u3000 Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) (300577)
The company released the performance express in 2021. The annual revenue in 2021 is expected to be 2.2 ~ 2.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.18 ~ 28.61%; The net profit increased by 80.01 ~ 150.15% year-on-year to 145 ~ 195 million yuan. Under the background of global consumption recovery, the company, as the leader of luggage, is expected to maintain good growth and overweight rating in the future.
Key points supporting rating
The company released the 2021 annual performance express, and the two businesses of 2b2c recovered simultaneously, driving revenue growth. In the context of the recovery of consumption outside China, 2b continued to consolidate its cooperative relations with high-quality customers such as Nike, Decathlon and VF, and continuously strengthened its lean management and manufacturing capacity. 2C, the company has been developing tiktok in new channels such as jitter and its own brand matrix has been strengthened. Throughout the year, the improvement of the company's business structure and the promotion of its own brand image have achieved remarkable results, with continuous growth of profitability and good long-term development. The annual revenue is expected to reach 2.2 ~ 2.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.18 ~ 28.61%; The net profit increased by 80.01 ~ 150.15% year-on-year to 145 ~ 195 million yuan. During the reporting period, the company received about 70 million yuan of government subsidies, and the deduction of non net profit increased by 68.44 ~ 118.09% year-on-year to 95 ~ 123 million yuan.
Quarter by quarter, the revenue performance of 2021q4 was brilliant, exceeding market expectations. In Q4 single quarter, under the background of high growth of e-commerce, the company continued to further upgrade its C-end private brand; Meanwhile, the orders of b-end customers continue to be optimized. The revenue of Q4 in a single quarter is expected to be RMB 626 ~ 926 million, with a year-on-year increase of 33.48 ~ 98.08%. The net profit of Q4 in a single quarter fluctuates due to the one-time impairment of epidemic prevention materials, which is expected to improve in 2022.
The quality of its own brand is excellent, and the development of the industry drives the increase of product demand. The target group of private brand "90 points" has clear positioning, fashionable design and leading technology, and will usher in rapid growth this year. In terms of 2B, the company has significant advantages in quality, R & D and cost. In the future, it will deepen the cooperation with existing customers and benefit from the development of customers' business and the increase of supply proportion. The company acquired the Indonesian factory and Shanghai Jiale and entered the supply chain of Nike and UNIQLO; Cut into the VF supply chain and receive VF's growing orders to provide new growth points for the future. In the future, the company will benefit from the upgrading of consumption, the growth of travel and the improvement of its brand strength, improve its market share and achieve rapid growth of performance.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, the earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 are expected to be 0.8 yuan, 1.4 yuan and 1.7 yuan respectively; The price earnings ratio was 25 times, 14 times and 12 times respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the market competition intensified, and the capacity expansion was less than expected
