\u3000\u3000 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702)
Payment collection: through long-term tracking and wide-ranging research, we estimate that the payment collection before the Spring Festival (sales caliber, excluding reservation) is close to 30% of the annual target, exceeding 25% of the assessment tasks of the sales team, of which 90% of the goods have been delivered, exceeding the expectation. After the Spring Festival, there will be replenishment of old customers and investment promotion of sugar and wine. According to the past situation, it generally accounts for 15% + of the total payment received in Q1. Therefore, we expect that the payment received in Q1 can reach 35%, with a year-on-year increase of 50% +. However, it should be noted that the income at the report end is related to the invoicing situation.
Mobile sales: the core terminal is willing to sell, and sells well. According to the usual law, the sales proportion of the company's core terminals (i.e. alliance body, which can be recognized as several star alliance body when the annual sales task reaches dozens of boxes) can reach 80% of the total sales. The first purchase of the consortium needs to reach 30% of the annual task. According to the current payment collection and delivery situation, the dealer has distributed most of the goods to the consortium. The alliance's own shipment volume exceeds 80% of the purchase volume, which is more estimated by the salesperson. Even if there is a deviation, it will not be too large. Except for Henan and Tianjin, which are greatly affected by the epidemic, the dynamic sales in most parts of the country are good. The company does not suppress the goods from the dealers in the epidemic area and maintains a reasonable inventory.
Inventory: in 2021, the shipment increased by 2 billion, the inventory did not increase significantly, and the wholesale price was stable, indicating that the sales were good. Willing to channel inventory 1 billion at the beginning of 2020, it will drop to 600-700 million by the middle of 2021. At the beginning of the year, it is estimated that 800 million inventory (corresponding to 2-month inventory), which is consistent with our research results. For example, the inventory in Sichuan, Hebei and Shandong is within 2 months, and that in non core areas is more than 2 months.
Price: before the Spring Festival, the price is stable and rising steadily (the company will reduce channel expenses in 2022). At present, the price of taste willing is 350-360 yuan, the price of wisdom willing is about 470 yuan, the lowest transaction price of taste willing terminal in Chengdu market is 360-370 yuan, and the transaction price of Suining terminal is no more than 380 yuan. We expect that before spring sugar, the taste is willing to increase the ex factory price by 15-20 yuan, and the wisdom is willing to increase by more than 20 yuan. Price control is the key work of the company in 2022, and the price is expected to reach 370 yuan by the middle of the year and 380 yuan by the end of the year.
It is different from the collection of other brands: it is willing to make a good start, unlike the requirements of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Guojiao, drunkard and other manufacturers to complete more than 40% of the tasks of the whole year. On the one hand, in the past, pressing goods for dealers led to large inventory, and the wholesale price fell after delivery every festival. Now stabilizing the price is the primary task; On the other hand, the company hopes to have a high turnover. It pays more attention to dynamic sales than payment collection. The company has seven warehouses in the country, and the delivery is convenient.
Profit forecast and investment rating: willing to pay off Q1 without pressure, the dynamic sales exceed expectations, the inventory is benign and the rating is stable. With some reserved funds in 2021, the performance is guaranteed and the potential energy is higher. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.81, 6.03 and 8.27 yuan / share respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk factors: repeated epidemics lead to the slowdown of mobile sales; The nationwide expansion was less than expected.
