\u3000\u3000 Venustech Group Inc(002439) (002439)
Key investment points:
On January 26, the company announced the performance forecast: in 2021, the company’s revenue was 4.377-45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.02-23.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 855-915 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.34% – 13.80%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 759-819 million, with a year-on-year increase of 8-16.54%.
According to the data of a single quarter, the revenue of 2021q4 company was 2.28-2.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% – 9.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 870-930 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.35% to 26.51%; Deduct non net profit of 810 to 870 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.03% to 28.92%. The company achieved rapid growth in the first three quarters, but affected by the government budget, the overall development in the fourth quarter was lower than expected, but the gross profit margin increased significantly compared with the first three quarters.
Overall, the company did not achieve the growth target of 30% in 2021. In the face of fierce competition from friends and rising raw material prices, the company has not only maintained a revenue growth rate of more than 20%, but also expected to increase its gross profit margin by 2% – 2.5% by undertaking high-quality projects and giving full play to its product advantages. Facing the shortage and price rise of raw materials in 2021, the company also made strategic reserves of raw materials in advance to better avoid risks.
2021 is the year of strategic investment of the company. The annual R & D and marketing investment increased by about 35% year-on-year, of which the sales investment focused on the business of safety operation center. At the same time, the company is also actively investing in R & D in new business, new track and practical ability. In addition, the company’s positive equity in 2021 and social security relief due to the epidemic in 2020 totaled 147 million yuan. Excluding these two factors, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by about 14%.
In comparison with peers, the company is the only network security company that has announced the performance forecast for 2021 to maintain the continuous growth of non net profit deduction for two years. At the same time, it is also the company with the highest non net profit deduction in the industry. While maintaining rapid growth, the company has maintained a reasonable profit, which is also more conducive to the long-term development of the company.
In 2021, the company achieved good results in two strategic businesses: safe operation and data security:
(1) operation safety: by the end of 2021, the company had built 119 urban and industrial safety operation centers, and basically achieved the development goal of 120 centers in 2021. The company promotes the combination of the “Mayor plan” and the strategy of independent security operation center, and the demand of scenario realizes the stickiness to customers. A series of changes made before 2021 also laid a good foundation for subsequent business development.
(2) data security: in 2021, the company started a new year of Data Security 3.0. On December 1, 2021, the company established a data security headquarters in Hangzhou and also released the data oasis technical framework. In 2021, the company’s data security business increased by more than 50% year-on-year. According to the company’s scale of 600 million in 2020, the data security revenue will reach 900 million yuan in 2021. Subsequently, with the implementation of the network security law and the personal information protection law, the development of data security has been strongly driven by the regulatory level, and will enter a period of rapid development in the next few years. With the first share of data security, the company has made excellent achievements in the early development of data security. In the process of subsequent development of Data Security 3.0, it is also actively engaged in investment and layout, which is expected to open up an independent territory equivalent to network security in the field of data security.
From the perspective of business dimension, the company’s safe operation business achieved rapid growth in 2021, the growth rate of data security was more than 50%, localization and industrial control security achieved rapid growth, and the revenue of end-to-side safety, honeypot, full flow detection and other new track products increased by more than 300%.
For an enterprise with such a volume as the company, due to the relatively stable share of the track in the network security industry, the original model relying on the track layout has been difficult to support the demand for sustained and rapid growth. To this end, the company was the first to carry out the layout of safe operation business in the industry. At present, it has made a breakthrough in the “mountain field mode”. By deeply binding urban and industrial customers, and then by improving service capacity, increase the stickiness to customers and the allocation proportion of budget. At the same time, through in-depth exploration of customer needs, product innovation and landing are formed.
Maintain the investment rating of “buy” of the company. As the data security business and safe operation business are getting better and better, the investment value of the company is further highlighted. We expect that the company’s EPS in 21-23 years will be 0.96 yuan, 1.30 yuan and 1.77 yuan respectively. Calculated according to the closing price of 24.32 yuan on January 27, the corresponding PE will be 25.40 times, 18.75 times and 13.74 times.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic affected the government budget
