\u3000\u3000 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (300662)
Event: the company announced the performance forecast. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 233 ~ 253 million yuan, with an increase of 25 ~ 36%, and the net profit after deduction of non-profit of 192 ~ 212 million yuan, with an increase of 28 ~ 42%.
Comments:
We estimate that flexible employment is still increasing rapidly, and the recruitment business is accelerating. On the revenue side, we estimate that the growth rate of Q4 flexible employment revenue is more than 80%, still maintaining a high outlook, and the growth rate of recruitment business revenue is more than 30%. On the profit side, due to increased technical investment and new research personnel, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 increased by – 15% ~ 24%.
Increase investment in technology, and it is estimated that the growth rate will be faster after elimination. The company further increased its investment in technology. On the one hand, it strengthened the information construction, focused on the infrastructure construction of technology middle stage and digital middle stage, and improved the human efficiency of offline diversified service products through digital management; On the other hand, we will continue to upgrade and optimize the construction and market promotion of a variety of new technology service products such as “vertical recruitment platform”, “human resources industry interconnection platform”, “regional talent brain platform”, “Kerui talent to the cloud”. Technology investment has begun to enable the growth of the three main industries. If we exclude the impact of the loss of new technology service products, we estimate that the performance growth rate will exceed 40%.
Investment suggestion: the performance of 21q4 was affected by increasing technology investment, and the growth rate slowed down slightly; We estimate that if we exclude the impact of losses on new technology service products, the growth rate will remain strong. We are optimistic about the high growth trend of flexible employment and the steady development of recruitment business. According to the performance forecast, we adjusted the EPS in 21 / 22 / 23 to 1.25/1.65/2.10 yuan / share. The current stock price corresponds to the valuation of 47x / 35x / 28x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of macroeconomic slowdown and repeated epidemic on the search for medium and high-end talents and the outsourcing of recruitment process. The number of employees dispatched for flexible employment is low, resulting in the income growth rate not reaching the expectation.
