\u3000\u3000 China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (601800)
Infrastructure engineering is the core business of the company, which benefits from 22h1 infrastructure investment with better upward elasticity
The company's infrastructure projects contribute core income and new contracts, accounting for far more than other major construction central enterprises. The company's business is mainly infrastructure projects. The revenue from infrastructure construction, infrastructure design and dredging business of 20fy company is 5.6 billion, 400 million and 380 million respectively. Regardless of segment offset, the revenue from infrastructure related business accounts for more than 100% (including dredging business), The order structure is also generally similar (vs20fy the newly signed contract amount of CSCEC, China Railway, China Railway Construction and MCC account for 21%, 60%, 53% and 20% respectively, and the rest is mainly real estate construction and real estate sales). It is worth mentioning that the strength of the company's sea breeze construction can not be underestimated. Its CCCC Third Navigation Bureau accounts for about 60% of China's sea breeze installation. Longyuan Zhenhua, which is indirectly invested by the company, also has great influence. The growth prospect of sea breeze business is worth looking forward to.
22h1 infrastructure investment may have good upward elasticity. 21h2 China's economy generally presents a situation of weak consumption, high base of export and manufacturing investment, and the demand for real estate is still bottoming out. There is an urgent demand for infrastructure investment. Combined with the source of funds (the issuance rhythm of 21fy special bonds is backward, and some practical workload may be reflected in 22h1 and the amount of special bonds approved in advance in 22 years, which has reached a new high in recent years) and project reserves (the national development and Reform Commission made a clear list of major projects at the end of 21, and the recent relatively intensive statement of steady growth at the central level, etc.), we judge that 22h1 infrastructure investment is qualified for upward growth.
The company's investment projects precipitate a considerable amount of operating assets, and the first REITs promotes or catalyzes the revaluation of value
At the end of 21q1-3, the scale of intangible assets of the company was 247 billion, mainly highway concessions. Intangible assets accounted for 17% of the total assets, which was significantly higher than that of other central construction enterprises (except power construction). At the end of 21h1, the company has signed a total contract investment estimate of 446 billion for BOT projects, with a total investment of 226.4 billion, accounting for 50.8%; The operating income of 21h1 is 3.8 billion, yoy + 172%, and the net loss is 1.2 billion (vs19fy and 20fy have net losses of 2.6 billion and 4.4 billion respectively). The benefits have improved significantly, and we think it has a certain sustainability. In addition, there is also a large amount of receivables from PPP projects in the company's assets. We expect the company's investment expenditure intensity to be generally stable in recent years, and the investment project structure may be gradually optimized. 21 / 12 the national development and Reform Commission made it clear that it is necessary to further accelerate the work related to the infrastructure pilot. The pilot project library is "willing to enter and should enter". At the same time, it is required to speed up the progress of project application and accelerate the pace of public offering REITs of infrastructure construction. The company's first riets Jiatong expressway project has received feedback from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, or catalysed the revaluation of the company's expressway concession and other assets.
The segment valuation gives the company a 22-year target market value of 251.2 billion and maintains the "buy" rating
21q4 infrastructure investment is slightly lower than our previous expectations, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is slightly reduced by 206 / 238 / 267 yuan (the previous value is 215 / 240 / 27.5 billion), yoy is 27% / 15% / 12% respectively, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in engineering and other businesses (excluding operation business, the same below) is 233 / 263 / 29.1 billion respectively. Referring to the situation of comparable companies, 1) approve the 22-year goal pe7 of engineering and other businesses 5x, corresponding to the target market value of 19.5 billion yuan; 2) The 22-year target pb0.0 of operation business is recognized 8x (we estimate that the company's 22-year highway concession net assets will be 67.2 billion), corresponding to the target market value of 53.8 billion yuan; The segment valuation gives the company an overall target market value of 251.2 billion yuan in 22 years, corresponding to the company's overall pe1.0 billion yuan in 22 years 5x, raised the target price of the company to 15.54 yuan accordingly, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, the repair rhythm of profit margin is lower than expected, and the landing rhythm and implementation of REITs supporting policies are lower than expected
