\u3000\u3000 Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) (300480)
Event description
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 120-140 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 102.18% - 135.88%, deducting 75-85 million yuan of non net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 45.58% - 66.13%.
Core view
The localized dicing machine has achieved mass sales, and the layout of semiconductor equipment has entered the harvest period. In 2021, the company's domestic semiconductor dicing machine 8230 successfully achieved mass sales and was recognized by the head sealing and testing enterprise. This indicates that through overseas acquisition, R & D layout and long-term accumulation, the company has the ability to completely autonomously scribe equipment, and has an advantage in competition with overseas leaders. We believe that after completing the acquisition and holding of LP (the inventor of dicing machine), LPB (the core spindle supplier) and ADT (the third largest dicing machine supplier in the world), the company has successfully built a team with strong R & D team + core parts technology + mass production and delivery ability, and the layout of semiconductor equipment field has begun to take shape, In the future, it is expected to enter the high-speed growth harvest period through the rapid and large-scale production of localized models.
Downstream production expansion is active, overseas leaders are out of stock, and domestic equipment ushers in the best time window for import substitution. According to semi's statistics and forecast, from 2021 to 2023, the total scale of packaging equipment market will reach US $21.3 billion, an increase of US $10.6 billion compared with 2018-2020, nearly doubling the scale, and the downstream expansion is very positive. At the same time, disco, the leader of Japanese dicing machine, occupies more than 70% of the global market share. However, due to the conservative expansion of production, the production capacity is limited. At present, the backlog of orders and delayed delivery are very serious. We believe that this year will be the most critical year for the company to quickly realize domestic substitution and increase its share. Under the condition that the parameters of localized equipment are fully benchmarked and the price has advantages, the company is expected to win the favor of downstream customers, obtain batch orders and achieve high growth.
Hold the trump card of core air spindle and actively build a platform for semiconductor equipment parts. Through the acquisition of LPB, the company has mastered the R & D and production process of the air spindle, the core component of the dicing machine, making the company the only supplier in the world with both core spindle and mass production equipment in China. In addition to the dicing machine, the company's spindle can also be used in grinding machines, ion implantation, CMP and other semiconductor key equipment. It is a potential supplier of parts for domestic semiconductor equipment in the future. Through fixed growth and convertible bonds, the company actively expands the production capacity of dicing machine and spindle. In the future, it is expected to open new growth space through spindle, and the platform ability will gradually appear.
Profit forecast
Maintain the "buy" rating. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 126 million yuan, 252 million yuan and 390 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.47, 0.94 and 1.45 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE values of 68.06, 33.84 and 21.90 times from 2021 to 2023 respectively. We are optimistic that the company's self-developed localized dicing models and consumables will rapidly enhance its competitive advantage by benefiting from factors such as technological breakthrough and cost reduction, usher in a good opportunity for domestic substitution under the condition of rapid growth of the industry and insufficient production capacity of overseas leaders, and further build a core equipment platform for semiconductor parts by relying on the self-research and expansion of the main air shaft of core parts, Open space for future growth.
Risk tips
The growth of semiconductor packaging and testing industry, the capacity expansion of dicing machine and spindle, and the fierce competition in the industry.
