\u3000\u3000 Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (603290)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 390-400 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 115.85% - 121.38%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 370-380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 138.07% - 144.51%.
Key investment points:
The 2021 performance guidelines exceeded expectations, and the high prosperity of IGBT continued. In 2021q4, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 123-133 million yuan in a single quarter, with a month on month increase of 9.71% - 18.59% and a year-on-year increase of 165.21% - 186.69%, mainly due to the following two points: (1) the revenue share of the company's new energy industry further increased compared with that in 2020, and the products continued to make breakthroughs in downstream industries, especially in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation Energy storage and other industries continued to expand rapidly, driving the high growth of the company's performance; (2) The company continued to increase R & D investment, accumulate product and technical advantages, optimize product structure, and continuously improve the company's core competitiveness.
3.5 billion raised funds were invested and the IGBT module leader accelerated its take-off. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the company's performance growth may come from: (1) the business volume improvement opportunities brought by the continuous landscape of downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and energy storage, and the further improvement of the company's self built module packaging capacity; (2) The product structure was further optimized and the profitability of new products was improved. In the field of new energy vehicles, with the improvement of the company's packaging capacity and the expansion of the capacity of upstream wafer factories, the company's supporting capacity of new energy vehicles is expected to increase significantly year-on-year in 2021, At the same time, the 650V / 750V IGBT chip based on the sixth generation trench field stop technology and the module supporting the fast recovery diode chip of the company have added a number of fixed points for the main motor controller platform of double electric control hybrid and pure electric vehicle, which will provide a continuous driving force for the sales growth of IGBT modules of new energy vehicles of the company from 2023 to 2029. In the field of photovoltaic power generation, the company independently launched high-power module series suitable for centralized photovoltaic inverter, boost of series inverter and IGBT chip of three-level module series, which have been further promoted. In the SiC field, since 2020, the company has designated several new energy vehicle main motor controller projects using full SiC MOSFET modules, which is expected to start in 2022; The company's all silicon carbide power module industrialization project has started construction and mass supply. It is expected to start mass supply in 2022. The company's 3.5 billion yuan fixed increase project has been issued. After the completion of the project, the company will have the chip manufacturing capacity of high-voltage IGBT and SiC products, enrich the product line horizontally, break through the capacity bottleneck vertically, and accelerate the take-off of IGBT module leaders is just around the corner.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is one of the top ten IGBT module manufacturers in the world and the first in China. It continues to increase its research and development, expand its product categories, raise funds and invest in the field of 3300v and above high-voltage IGBT and SiC, further enrich its product line and improve its competitiveness. The company strengthens the layout of new business, and the capacity expansion superimposes the high boom demand of the downstream market. It is expected to fully benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution. We raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 396 (+ 0.13) / 643 (+ 1.14) / 861 (+ 152) million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 2.32/3.77/5.05 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding current PE valuation will be 143 / 88 / 66 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; The company's new product R & D and customer introduction progress is less than expected risk; The construction progress of the fixed increase project is less than the expected risk; Technical iteration is less than expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risks.
