\u3000\u3000 Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) (300577)
The performance is basically in line with expectations, the investment focus remains unchanged, and the "buy" rating is maintained
The company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company will be 2.2-2.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.18% - 28.61%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 145-195 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 86.01% - 150.15%. The net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 was 95-123 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.44% - 118.09%. The epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations and affected the recovery of the global travel market. We lowered our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 170 / 215 / 286 million yuan (previously 223 / 305 / 404 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.90 yuan and 1.19 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 26.2/20.8/15.6 times. The focus of the company's investment remains unchanged and there is a broad business space at the 2B end, 2C end creates a first-class consumer goods brand and maintains the "buy" rating.
The growth rate of b-end business is gratifying, and the C-end business is expected to usher in a marginal positive change
In 2021, the annual revenue of 2B terminal is expected to be about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% at the same time and exceeding the level in 2019; The annual revenue of 2C terminal is about 700-800 million yuan, with a slight increase over the same period, mainly due to the slight decline of revenue of Xiaomi brand under the condition of no overseas business and the decrease of Chinese SKU. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the revenue is about 600-900 million yuan, an increase of 33.3% - 97.2% at the same time. It is expected that the revenue of 2021q4 at 2B end will increase by 40% +; It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of 2021q4 at 2C end is about 10-20%, of which 90 brands increased by 50%, mainly due to the increment brought by overseas channels.
Future outlook: the 2B terminal has a broad business space, and the 2C terminal will build a first-class consumer goods brand
2B end: according to customers, Nike is expected to grow by more than 20% in 2022; Decathlon grew by more than 30%, and the company will become the largest supplier of decathlon in 2022; The growth rate of VF group is about 100%, and the order revenue is about 140 million yuan - 150 million yuan; It customers continue to maintain single digit steady growth. In terms of production capacity, it is expected that about 50 luggage production lines will be added in the first phase of the new plant in Indonesia in 2022.
2C end: from the perspective of brand, (1) 90 brand: achieve profit and loss balance in 2022, and pay more attention to the fine operation of channels while further optimizing the product structure and improving the gross profit margin of products. (2) Xiaomi brand: we expect revenue growth of more than 30% in 2022. From the perspective of China, the company adjusted the product mix at the beginning of 2021, with fewer low price SKUs and higher gross profit margin for new SKUs. The listing process has been completed in 2021q4 and will contribute revenue in 2022; Overseas channels: in 2021, Xiaomi's overseas dealers did not purchase luggage products. In 2022, the company's Xiaomi brand will re-enter the overseas market, adjust its strategy, take bags as the core category, and make full use of Xiaomi's overseas channels.
Risk tip: the epidemic caused the travel market to recover less than expected, and the brand operation was less than expected.
