The energy conservation and emission reduction plan was released, and the long-term development trend of new energy remains unchanged
On January 24, the State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan. The plan pointed out that by 2025, the national energy consumption per unit GDP will be 13.5% lower than that in 2020, and the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption will reach about 20%. The long-term development goal of clean energy will be further consolidated. *** And actively and orderly develop light, silicon, hydrogen and renewable energy. It can be seen from the content of the energy conservation and emission reduction plan that the top-level policy design is still conducive to the long-term development of new energy. Specifically, we are optimistic about (1) core growth of the new energy vehicle industry chain: high barriers, link leaders, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other front-line leaders benefit; (2) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc; (3) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) etc. The photovoltaic industry is optimistic about (1) the opportunity of power station development market + power market-oriented reform, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) and other benefits; (2) Terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) benefit; (3) The industrial chain of auxiliary materials such as thermal field and adhesive film with good medium and long-term supply and demand will benefit from technological innovation (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL energy, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) . The wind power industry is optimistic about (1) core parts enterprises that can go global or realize domestic substitution, Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) and other benefits; (2) In the next few years, it is expected to realize the offshore wind power industry chain spanning from 1 to 10, Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Haili wind power, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and other benefits; (3) The whole machine enterprises that benefited from the accelerated growth of installed capacity in 2022, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) and so on.
The top-level policy design gradually decomposes the total amount target into specific implementable plans
The energy conservation and emission reduction work plan focuses on the deployment of ten key projects, involving key industries such as iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, petrochemical, transportation, coal, electric power and heating, and defines the energy conservation and emission reduction targets of key industries during the 14th Five Year Plan period. For example, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in the transportation industry will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles; The coal power industry has promoted the “three reform linkage” of coal saving and consumption reduction transformation, heating transformation and flexibility transformation of existing coal-fired power units. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the coal consumption in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the surrounding areas and the Yangtze River Delta decreased by about 10% and 5% respectively, and the top-level policy design has gradually shifted to the plan that can be implemented in each step.
The performance appraisal method is more scientific and reasonable, which is conducive to the effective implementation of policies
The work plan points out that we should strengthen the management of binding indicators for reducing energy consumption intensity, take the energy output rate as an important basis, and implement the dual objective management of basic objectives and incentive objectives for reducing energy consumption intensity in each province during the 14th five year plan, which will be broken down from each Province to each year; Strengthen the flexibility of total energy consumption management, and all provinces determine the annual total energy consumption target according to the regional GDP growth target and the basic target of reducing energy consumption intensity; New renewable energy power consumption is not included in the assessment of local total energy consumption, and raw material energy consumption is not included in the assessment of national and local energy consumption. The new assessment method will effectively promote the government and enterprises to actively implement the policy implementation and ensure the smooth achievement of the dual carbon goal.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
