Fund position: the position continues to fall slightly, but it is still in the state of over allocation; The effect of raising prices in non Baijiu has been increased. (1) Industry as a whole: the market value of food and beverage stocks held by 2021q4 fund accounted for 14.34% of the total market value of fund investment, with a month on month decrease of 0.28pct and a year-on-year decrease of 3.29pct. It has been in over configuration since 2017q2. From 2019q3, the fund allocation began to decline, but it was still in the state of over allocation. 2020q4 oversupply ratio continued to decline, and has remained at a low oversupply ratio since then, which is currently 6.38%.
(2) sub sector: 2021Q4 Baijiu sector fund holds a heavy shareholding ratio of 12.38%, a decrease of 0.08pct compared with the same period, an increase of 2.36pct compared with the same period last year. Q4 Baijiu sector is in the super matching state, the ratio is 6.77%, the ratio of 0.08pct is down by 2.36pct. Non Baijiu sector fund holdings ratio of 1.97%, the ring fell 0.19pct, down 0.93pct; Non Baijiu sector is low and low proportion -0.39%, this year, non Baijiu is basically in a state of matching. Among them, the non Baijiu sector, condiments and beer have a small increase, mainly from the Q4 since the price increase effect.
Individual stock allocation: maowu Luyang fenguyi has a stable position and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) is among the top 20.
(1) since the beginning of this year, four of the food and beverage positions have remained stable (maowu Lufen), and Q4 Yili has surpassed Yanghe as the fifth largest position stock. Among the top 20 heavyweight stocks, the proportion of growth enterprises increased. 2021Q4 Baijiu Baijiu liquor shares the number of liquor stocks and non liquor stocks in the top 20. The non Baijiu are Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , of which the Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) is the first 20 of the new Jin Dynasty.
(2) Baijiu holdings differentiation, liquor sector, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) positions increased, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and other positions declined. The non Baijiu sector, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Ely and Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) positions declined slightly.
Configuration of land and port: Baijiu liquor accounted for one seat, food nine seats, most of the changes in holdings were derived from performance, partly due to cheap valuation. 1) Top ten: as of December 31, 2021, the top five shareholding ratios of land port link in the industry are Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , and the shareholding ratios of 6-10 are Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) , By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) . Baijiu accounted for 2 seats and food accounted for 8 seats. 2) increase in Holdings: 2021Q4 compared with 2021Q3, the top 3 of Shanghai and Hong Kong’s holdings increased by Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , and 5 of the 10 Baijiu before the increase, and 5 of the food.
Industry rating: Food and beverage investment in 2022 will adhere to three main lines: first, industry revenue and profit will continue to grow steadily; Second, we should be optimistic about Baijiu and optimize the performance of individual stocks during the Spring Festival. Third, under the influence of inflation background and low base, the food and beverage sector may show better elasticity.
Key recommendations: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) etc.
Risk warning: the macro economy continues to decline; The performance of the recommended company does not meet expectations; Food safety issues.
