Recently, many governments have successively issued loose policies to improve market confidence in terms of the proportion of provident fund loans and whether to recognize loans or not. Combined with the policy support related to enterprise M & A loans and the substantial improvement of the bond issuance level of some high-quality private enterprises, it is expected that the friendly trend at the policy end will still be a deterministic variable in a long time dimension.
Since January, the industry fundamentals have continued to accelerate downward exploration. At the same time, some enterprises are still facing great liquidity pressure. At present, the improvement of policies is not enough to correct the rapid decline of industry prosperity. It is expected that a series of loose policy tools will continue to increase to achieve the goal of stable growth. Last week, the central bank lowered the five-year LPR after 21 months. In January 2022, the interest rate of the first set of housing loans and the second set of housing loans in 103 key cities monitored by the shell Research Institute was 5.56% and 5.84%, both of which were 8 basis points lower than that of the previous month. The effect of accelerating mortgage delivery has begun to appear initially.
At present, the valuation center of the industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. The strength management after the direction is confirmed will still have a strong correlation with the upward space of the sector. Under the background of steady growth, we believe that the strength of policy release will be strengthened step by step, and we do not rule out non hot cities to break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, The subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, although the downward trend at the performance level is difficult to reverse, the substantial improvement of the gross profit margin of land acquisition in 2022 can still be expected. In the future, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors in the medium and long term. The accelerated liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration, We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2. SZ), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048. SH), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383. SH), China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979. SZ) and China Overseas Development (0688. HK).
