As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the supply side shrinks, and the price is expected to fluctuate. At present, some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Gujiao in Taiyuan, Linfen and Lingshi in Jinzhong have stopped production for holidays, while coal mines in other parts of Shanxi are still dominated by normal production. Considering the epidemic situation, supply guarantee and other factors, some coal mines have reduced plans or no holidays for holidays, and the coal supply will shrink during the Spring Festival. The port inventory of thermal coal has continued to decline since the end of December. The total inventory of major ports in the North has decreased from 21.04 million tons at the end of December last year to 17.81 million tons on January 14, a decrease of 22.62%. The coal storage of the power plant remains at a safe level. The supply and demand are expected to be weak during the Spring Festival, and the price of power coal is expected to enter the volatile operation range.
Coking coal benefited from the continuous replenishment of inventory in the downstream, and the price rose continuously. In terms of coking coal, the recent supply and demand are both weak. The supply is mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, environmental protection and safety inspection. It is expected that the supply will shrink significantly and the operating rate of downstream blast furnaces will gradually rise. However, it is expected that due to the holiday and Winter Olympic Games, there is little room for further rise in the future. The downstream coking plants and steel mills have continued to make up stocks significantly since the end of December 21, It is expected that the price of coking coal may stabilize with the stabilization of replenishment inventory and the arrival of holidays.
Listed companies have successively issued high growth performance forecasts, and the advantage of undervaluation of coal stocks is prominent. Since January 19 this week, Baotailong New Materials Co.Ltd(601011) , Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) have successively issued performance forecasts for 2021. Among them, Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) is expected to turn losses into profits in 21 years, and the other listed companies have achieved significant pre increases, of which Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) significantly exceeded market expectations, and the company's net profit is expected to increase by 444.14% to 504.59% year-on-year; Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) is expected to increase by 473.33% to 553.33% year-on-year, which is also far higher than market expectations. The main reason why the performance of listed companies exceeded expectations was that Q4 prices remained high in 2021, and the guaranteed supply companies adjusted prices flexibly, which released their performance. Under the high performance of coal, the coal price has not fully reflected the fundamental changes. Under the background of the overall weakening of the current market, the allocation value of coal stocks is prominent.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, impact of extreme weather and coal policy are not as expected.
